Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - Printable Version

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Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - msqueri - 11-30-2024

1. Welp, four consecutive three win seasons it is. We are now entering the chat with teams like 2016-2019 Rutgers, 2013-2016 Iowa State, 2000-2004 Vanderbilt, and 1991-1994 Northwestern. We're not yet (un)worthy of the early 2000s Duke comparison. There's generally room for one team this hapless at a time and right now, unhappily, it's us. We will see when other teams finish their seasons where we end in the final analysis for algorithmic rankings like Sagarin and SP+ but it is now settled we essentially repeated the quality of Taylor's first season, which is to say one of our five worst seasons of all time and two seasons in a row to start the Taylor era that are our worst since 2006. I don't think the coaching staff has shown enough for us to have any confidence in the rebuild and I think it would be defensible to pull the plug on this staff and start over but that is not going to happen. Instead, I expect attention to focus on the fundamentals of university support and mindset shifts to grapple with the new landscape of college football. That is also defensible and probably focusing on the root of the issue more than trying to take another ride on the coaching carousel two years into an attempted rebuild.

2. Analyzing yet another game not worthy of a Power Four team seems somewhat beside the point when the season's shape is so well known at this point and we are all wanting to turn the page to a new Andrew Luck era. But for the sake of completeness I'll go through my process here. In the last game of the season, we played San Jose State like a middle of the pack Group of Five team, which is indeed the level of play we've had generally this season. That would have been just enough to win if we hadn't shot ourselves in the foot so much. Alas, we threw three interceptions (one essentially a punt, one arguably just how the ball bounces, and one completely inexcusable that cost us the game), scored zero points after having a first down from the three yard line, and, after a season of discipline in not committing penalties, racked up a whopping 10 penalties for 115 yards, which must rank extremely high on the all-time list for Stanford football. You have to go back 117 games to the UCF game in 2015 to find Stanford so undisciplined in a game. Hard to win committing that many penalties unless you are clearly superior to the opponent, as our 2015 team was. The 2024 Stanford Cardinal are not superior to San Jose State.

3. We weren't better than San Jose State and we weren't worse either. This game was an appropriate conclusion to the season in that it was deeply representative of the level of team we had this year. In this contest, we had 2.4 points per drive, making the #61 points per drive defense look like the #82 yards defense, and a middle of the road performance in yards per play compared to San Jose State opponents (five teams gained better than us, six gained worse). We had our third highest yards per play of our FBS season but that should be expected against the third worst defense we played according to SP+. On defense, we gave up 2.82 points per drive, making the #89 points per drive offense look like the #26 points per drive offense, though if you dock seven points from San Jose State due to our defensive touchdown that is 2.18 points per drive, akin to the #76 points per drive offense. This was the second worst offense we played this season according to SP+ yet only our sixth best yards per play defensive game. The most I can say for the defensive performance is it was better than a fair number of Group of Five defenses, as seven teams gave up more yards per play to San Jose State this year and four gave up less. Put simply, on both sides of the ball we looked like a fairly typical Mountain West team.

4. In terms of individual phases of the game, we were relatively best at run defense followed by run game followed by pass defense followed by passing offense. Pretty typical for us. San Jose State has an atrocious run game and predictably could not get anything going against us. Because they are so bad at this our 58 yards allowed performance doesn't even stand out that much and in fact five teams have held the Spartans to even fewer yards per carry than we did. Still, we kept them significantly under their season average. We are now 72nd in yards per carry allowed, cementing run defense as a relative strength of the 2024 team. Improving nearly 30 spots in the national rankings is vastly more sign of improvement than we've shown in any other major respect. It is an open question whether we can sustain that progress losing Sinclair, Bernadel, and Phillips but we should acknowledge an area of clear improvement, especially when there have been so few. One can't be positive about our own run game in the face of that bleak stat that we just went an entire season without a running back scoring a rushing touchdown but in the land of the blind the one eyed man with cataracts is landed gentry. Against San Jose State, our run game was middle of the road compared to the Spartans' Mountain West schedule, the seventh highest yards per carry they've allowed. The pass defense held the Spartans to their ninth most yards per attempt but unfortunately gave up so many touchdowns that it swamped that effort, with only three teams allowing a passer rating as high as we did. And then there's our own passing. Sacramento State, Air Force, and Kennesaw State were the only teams to have fewer yards per attempt or a lower passer rating against the Spartans. There is no surprise here that we are a terrible passing team but I do think it drives it home to have two receivers capable of 100 yard receiving performances in the same game and still be so much worse than Mountain West teams at passing.

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - msqueri - 11-30-2024

5. It's a reflection of the profound limitations of Daniels' season that he cost us the game with an epically boneheaded interception to cap a three interception day and it still netted out as an above-average day for him in Total QBR. On the season, he is now 83rd in America after being 85th last year. We'll see where it settles out after the season is complete for everybody else but three quarters of the way through Daniels' college eligibility he seems quite clearly a below-average QB for the level of football we ostensibly play. I think a serious program would look seriously at trying to upgrade via the transfer portal. I don't expect that to happen and instead think the focus will be on trying to get him better OL play and seeing what that unlocks....if we can succeed in getting better OL play. [There is also a possibility Brown is QB1 next year but at this point I think it is more likely Daniels remains the leader]

6. With this season in the books, the picture on our OL play is clear. In traditional stats, we are 123rd in sacks allowed per game and 106th in yards per carry. In PFF's estimation, we are 97th in pass blocking and 121st in run blocking, which is one of the worst lines in the nation. As for the San Jose State game, it was more of the same with nobody playing at an above-average level for this level of football. PFF judged it a career day for Baklenko, a mediocre return for Rogers, Pale's third straight performance slightly above his season norm, and sub-par but pretty normal for them performances by Maikkula and Leyrer. On the year, our linemen currently rank among 439 power conference linemen as #215 McLaughlin, #238 Rogers, #340 Maikkula, #359 Pale, #371 Baklenko, #397 Leyrer, and #432 House. That compares to last year's #207 Rogers, #213 McLaughlin, #276 Maikkula, #380 Mayberry, #390 Pale, #409 Anderson, and #418 Baklenko. This doesn't feel like year-to-year growth on the line. We have to seriously and critically evaluate our offensive line personnel, concept, and coaching. Running it back just expecting improvement year-over-year doing the same thing with the same people doesn't seem like a recipe for success. The most optimistic I can muster is that Pale and Baklenko took modest strides. Hopefully we have a few returning starters next year who take strides but also a few newcomers via the transfer portal. I don't have a lot to say about skill position talent this week other than to acknowledge the big performances by Ayomanor and Mosley, now 6th and 14th in the ACC in receiving on the year (giving us the most prolific duo outside of Syracuse), and to say Daniels also helped with his feet in moving the chains. [Moving the chains (first down) leader board: Ayomanor (6), Daniels (6), Mosley (5), Lamson (2), Tabb, Roush] One of the most important storylines of our off-season is trying to keep Ayomanor and Mosley. It was interesting that Taylor indicated Ayomanor would be back. I don't know why he would be but hopefully Luck can work magic or maybe Ayomanor is already so inclined for whatever reason.

7. Not super impressed by the defense's performance against San Jose State. Our players who showed up positively multiple times in the box score were Wright, Bernadel, Bailey, Edwards, Cooper, Galvan, and Buckey (Rowell if the blocked punt gets tallied as defense). Wright made the most and the most spectacular plays but also cost us dearly getting beat a few times, which as I noted last week happens a fair bit. The interception and return was our play of the game and he also defended other passes but one can't say it was a great game overall. Buckey's late season emergence has been nice and hopefully he is back next year and builds on it. I feel ok about Galvan sliding in at linebacker next year but will miss Bernadel and Sinclair, the latter of whom I am somewhat heartsick he went out on such a bad game for him. Our best defensive player is far and away Bailey, now 64th in the nation in sacks and second in forced fumbles (I look on a per game basis but on an absolute basis he is actually currently tied for number one). Along with Ayomanor and Mosley Bailey ranks as a critically important retention challenge.

8. Special teams did its job admirably enough. Flintoft had a net punt of 43 yards to the 7 (nice) on his one chance. Kenney made a chip shot field goal attempt from 24 yards. Rowell had the blocked punt. Bachmeier had the 15 yard return, now 14th in the nation in punt return average; have to recognize a nice year for him in that phase to go with a brutal year for him on offense.

9. Game balls: Ayomanor, Bailey, Rowell, Osborne

10. No choice but to flush this season and move on, hoping for better days ahead. It's hard to see where the optimism is going to come from aside from the vague hope that Andrew Luck and a renewed administration focus on getting football right will be a gamechanger. But that's at least something. Today's Gameday announcement is an attempt at innovation and relevance. We are trying to turn the page and as fans of this enterprise all of us can support that attempt and hope it gets us out of this wilderness. Let's see what the coming weeks bring in terms of retention, transfers, recruiting, any changes to the staff (don't think I'd bet on it), and university signaling on revenue sharing. These will be big moments for Stanford football, more consequential than anything we saw this season in another wasted year of abject irrelevance and pitiful play. In Andrew we trust!

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - martyup - 11-30-2024

(11-30-2024, 10:03 AM)msqueri Wrote:  No choice but to flush this season and move on, hoping for better days ahead. 

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - skip75 - 11-30-2024

(11-30-2024, 07:45 PM)branner Wrote:  Thank you, Matt, for a season-full of terrific game analyses.

I'll second that! For your sake, I hope for a better team for you to analyze in the not-too-distant future.

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Chip.burns@glenborough.com - sunnyside sudser - 11-30-2024

As this dismal season unfolded i basically quit watching us play but as a 40 plus year season ticket holder and old bootie die hard I couldn’t just let go. Your excellent commentaries became my primary link to the program and for that I’m very thankful.

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - msqueri - 12-01-2024

Addendum after yesterday's results:

There is still the conference championship, bowl, and playoff season ahead to provide the final verdict on where teams stand, but as of now we are Sagarin #97 (#101 last year), SP+ #100 (#108 last year), and FEI #79 (#85 last year). Clear picture of the second worst Power Four team in the country (third worst Power Five if you include Oregon State) and slightly improved over last year. While I find this level of play unacceptable, managing to be slightly improved compared to Taylor's first year sets up a potential trajectory of year-to-year improvement. Still unclear whether we are building well enough to reach exit velocity into the realm of competitive programs but, especially coupled with the Luck news and rumblings of greater university focus in multiple dimensions, we need to keep grinding and trying to sell this as a credible rebuild.

The offense currently ranks as SP+ #90 (#95 last year), FEI #95 (#72 last year), scoring #105 (#112 last year), and yards per play #124 (#110 last year). One can make a case there was slight improvement but it's just as easy to make a case there wasn't.

The defense currently ranks as SP+ #109 (#116 last year), FEI #85 (#115 last year), scoring #116 (#132 last year), and yards per play #124 (#110 last year). More clear cut case that the defense modestly improved but it was modest.

The special teams currently ranks as SP+ #25 (#36 last year) and FEI #20 (#5 last year). It's much harder to improve at something when you're already good and the bottom line is special teams has been a strength both years under this staff.

As the current Sagarin rankings stand, here are our 2024 games ranked in terms of how impressive the game's final score was:

1) Beating Louisville 38-35: Befitting #17

2) Winning @ Syracuse 26-24: Befitting #28

3) Losing @ Cal 21-24: Befitting #64

4) Beating Cal Poly 41-7: Befitting #65

5) Losing to TCU 27-34: Befitting #70

6) Losing @ San Jose State 31-34: Befitting #99

7) Losing @ Clemson 14-40: Befitting #119

7) Losing to Wake Forest 24-27: Befitting #119

9) Losing @ Notre Dame 7-49: Befitting #142

10) Losing to SMU 10-40: Befitting #148

11) Losing to Virginia Tech 7-31: Befitting #157

12) Losing @ NC State 28-59: Befitting #196


In the end, we played two good games this year and five that weren't embarrassing with seven that were embarrassing and four that were humiliating.

One of the five worst teams in Stanford history....but arguably better than last year if you really squint. Hopefully next year we won't have to squint.

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - needle - 12-01-2024

Quote: The offense currently ranks as SP+ #90 (#95 last year), FEI #95 (#72 last year), scoring #105 (#112 last year), and yards per play #124 (#110 last year). One can make a case there was slight improvement but it's just as easy to make a case there wasn't.

The way you've ranked Stanford's top six performances, only one came against a top 40 defense (as ranked by opponent points per game at TeamRankings.com). That was against Kal (No. 39). Stanford played four other top 40 defenses: No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 23 SMU, No. 32 Clemson and No. 37 Virginia Tech.

Quote: The defense currently ranks as SP+ #109 (#116 last year), FEI #85 (#115 last year), scoring #116 (#132 last year), and yards per play #124 (#110 last year). More clear cut case that the defense modestly improved but it was modest.

Similarly, out of Stanford's top six performances, three were against top 40 offenses (as ranked by team points per game at TeamRankings.com): No. 19 Louisville, No. 29 TCU and No. 33 Syracuse. Stanford played three other top 40 offenses: No. 3 Notre Dame, No. 6 SMU and No. 19 Clemson.

Is this analysis meaningful? I believe it shows that under April the team showed an ability to play "above its head" in multiple games this year against tough competition. The bad news is that the Stanford offense under Troy Taylor really didn't show anything similar. 

I guess it's just my opinion, but I don't see much evidence that TT can elevate the talent on offense. April probably has a bright coaching future (some online chatter has him as a candidate for DC at Wisconsin, though I think that would be a tough sell to Badger fans even with his ties to that program).

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - Nobadeer - 12-01-2024

It's too bad that our new GM Luck has used up his college eligibility and can't suit up for the 2025 team . . . 

Ashton Daniels is one of the most exasperating Stanford QBs ever, right up there with Mike Cordova, Chris Lewis, TC Ostrander. Occasional wow plays and flashes of brilliance, interrupted by flabbergasting mistakes.

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - JohnR34231 - 12-01-2024

(12-01-2024, 11:39 AM)Nobadeer Wrote:  It's too bad that our new GM Luck has used up his college eligibility and can't suit up for the 2025 team . . . 

Ashton Daniels is one of the most exasperating Stanford QBs ever, right up there with Mike Cordova, Chris Lewis, TC Ostrander. Occasional wow plays and flashes of brilliance, interrupted by flabbergasting mistakes.

I think you could throw Scott Frost in there too.
Excellent runner, hit or miss passer.
I remember one run he made against Oregon in which just about every Duck defender had a shot at him and missed him.
I also remember Big Game that year when he had a receiver wide open in the Kal end zone. A touchdown there would have probably won the game for us.
Frost threw the ball five feet over the receiver's head.

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - martyup - 12-01-2024

Let's look at records broken this season.

1.  Rushing by a QB (high set by Daniels)
2.  Rushing TDs by a running back (low, as in zero)
3.  Rushing TDs by a QB (high set by Lamson)
4.  . . .

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - MV72018 - 12-01-2024

(12-01-2024, 11:39 AM)Nobadeer Wrote:  It's too bad that our new GM Luck has used up his college eligibility and can't suit up for the 2025 team . . . 

Ashton Daniels is one of the most exasperating Stanford QBs ever, right up there with Mike Cordova, Chris Lewis, TC Ostrander. Occasional wow plays and flashes of brilliance, interrupted by flabbergasting mistakes.

Luck suiting up wouldn't do much for this team. Why? Given the non-existent pass protection by our so-called O line, Andrew would quickly get crushed by the D rushers.

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - Sam Leopold - 12-01-2024

(12-01-2024, 11:39 AM)Nobadeer Wrote:  It's too bad that our new GM Luck has used up his college eligibility and can't suit up for the 2025 team . . . 

Ashton Daniels is one of the most exasperating Stanford QBs ever, right up there with Mike Cordova, Chris Lewis, TC Ostrander. Occasional wow plays and flashes of brilliance, interrupted by flabbergasting mistakes.

. . . . . or Kyle Matter, or Tavita Pritchard, or Josh Nunes, or . . . . .

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - JohnR34231 - 12-01-2024

(12-01-2024, 01:04 PM)MV72018 Wrote:  

(12-01-2024, 11:39 AM)Nobadeer Wrote:  It's too bad that our new GM Luck has used up his college eligibility and can't suit up for the 2025 team . . . 

Ashton Daniels is one of the most exasperating Stanford QBs ever, right up there with Mike Cordova, Chris Lewis, TC Ostrander. Occasional wow plays and flashes of brilliance, interrupted by flabbergasting mistakes.

Luck suiting up wouldn't do much for this team. Why? Given the non-existent pass protection by our so-called O line, Andrew would quickly get crushed by the D rushers.

Well, in his heyday, Luck was a master at going back to pass on, say, 3rd and 8, finding no one open and avoiding the rush and running for the first down.
Now no doubt he had better protection than our QB's do today, but he was certainly capable of avoiding a rush.

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RE: Saturday morning thoughts - San Jose State - Nobadeer - 12-01-2024

The legendary Andrew Luck: 9,430 career passing yards, 67% completions, 82 TD, 22 INT

Compare to:

Ashton Daniels, 3,986 career passing yards, 61% completions, 21 TD, 20 INT

Mike Cordova 3,539 career passing yards, 45% completions, 25 TD, 27 INT

Chris Lewis  4,346 career passing yards, 49% completions, 33 TD, 31 INT

TC Ostrander 3,783 career passing yards, 51 % completions, 15 TD, 11 INT

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