MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2

MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - Printable Version

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MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - skip75 - 12-29-2025

The non-conference schedule, heavy on Quad 3 & Quad 4 home games, is over. Before previewing the Notre Dame game, let's take stock of what's happened so far and what it might portend for the rest of the season. The record is 11-2, consisting of: 1-0 (Quad 1 - Saint Louis); 1-0 (Quad 2 - Colorado); 4-1 (Quad 3); and 5-1 (Quad 4). What lies ahead in ACC play is 9 Quad 1 games, 5 Quad 2s, 3 Quad 3s, and a single Quad 4. The win over Saint Louis was nice, but according to many of the various rating systems, there are 6-7 ACC teams rated higher than the Billikens. And the losses to Seattle & UNLV illustrate Stanford's vulnerabilities even when playing as a favorite.

Stanford was picked in the pre-season poll to finish 17th (of 18) in the ACC. Based on non-conference record, Stanford is tied for 5th! Of course that's meaningless due to wildly divergent strength of schedules. (By the way, per that measure, Cal is tied for 1st with UNC, a half game ahead of Duke.) According to some of the rating systems, Stanford's ratings nationally and in the ACC are: Massey - #55/#10; KenPom - #86/#14; Bart Torvick - #72/#12; ESPN BPI - #86/#15. There are several publications that put out periodical (typically weekly) ACC power rankings - my personal favorite, simply because of the name, is The Fighting Gobbler (Va Tech). I've seen 7 of these that all have Stanford ranked between 11th & 14th.

So what are some reasonable hopes/expectations for the remainder of the season? I stumbled across a website this morning that I hadn't seen before called inccstats. Among other things, they have an NCAA Tourney chance for every team - Stanford's is 10.9%. Even that low number seems a bit optimistic to me. I know we're all tired of the NIT, but I think even that might be an optimistic goal this season. At this point, my attention is just on how Stanford will fare in the ACC standings, keeping in mind the ACC tournament structure - the top 4 teams get 2 byes (1st game is in the quarterfinals); #5-#9 each get a single bye into the round of 16; #10-#15 each play in one of the 3 first round games; #16-#18 get an early Spring Break.

Last season Stanford went 11-9 in the ACC to finish 7th. Cal got the last tourney spot with a 6-14 record. The #8 team was 10-10, #s 9-13 were all 8-12, and #14 was 7-13. This year the league season has been cut down from 20 games to 18. According to ESPNs BPI, Stanford is predicted to have an ACC record of 6.4-11.6. As an over/under for Stanford ACC victories, 6.4 seems pretty reasonable. For me, the floor is 4 wins (winning all of the Quad 3 & 4 games - none of which will be a given) and the ceiling is 9 wins (winning 5 of the 14 Quad 1 & 2 games - or more to offset any Quad 3 or 4 losses). So in terms of the ACC tourney - in my view missing it would be a failure, playing a first round game would be the expectation, and getting a bye to the round of 16 would be the (likely unrealistic) hope.

My glasses are usually a bit more cardinal-colored than that, but a couple of things temper my optimism. After having attended 7 games and watching the others on TV, I think the 8-man rotation (hopefully 9 if Donavin Young can work his way back in) is OK, but that only Okorie provides a consistent threat that opponents will have to account for. When everyone is playing well together at both ends of the floor - hitting 3s, forcing turnovers & getting into transition offense - Stanford can be a lot of fun to watch. But far too often (CSUN game - first 10 minutes and 2nd half between 5 & 10 minutes remaining), there are long stretches when the defense disappears, shots don't fall, and turnovers come in bunches.

Also, I'm not sure that the schedule is favorable. Last season, Stanford played most of the toughest ACC opponents on the road. That did not go well - other than the memorable win at UNC and a win at Cal. But at Maples, Stanford was able to take advantage, going 9-1. This season, many more of the top teams will come to Maples. That could good, but I'm not convinced that whatever homecourt "advantage" that provides (travel - for sure, atmosphere - maybe not so much) will make enough of a difference vs. Duke, Louisville, etc. On the other hand, going on the road against opponents that Stanford should be competitive with will make victories a bit tougher to come by.

That's probably more than enough for one post, so I'll follow up with the Notre Dame preview in a bit. One thing I will say is that this first ACC game might be the single most important one for Stanford in terms of determining their ACC success (or lack thereof).

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - skip75 - 12-29-2025

The headline for this preview is that Notre Dame will be missing their best player. Markus Burton suffered a left ankle injury on Dec. 5 in a game at TCU. He underwent surgery the next week and is out indefinitely. Burton led the ACC in scoring last season and was 2nd team All-ACC. He was pre-season 1st team All-ACC this season and averaged 20 ppg in the nine full games he played.

Stanford is favored by 3.5 and the over/under is 149.5. Implied score is 76.5-73. The Irish are 9-4, 1-1 on the road. They are 1-3 vs. Quad 1 opponents, 3-0 vs. Quad 3, and 5-1 vs Quad 4. The Quad 1 losses were all competitive games vs. Ohio State, Kansas, & Houston. Burton played in all three. He was hurt in the first half of the Quad 1 win at TCU. Since the injury, Notre Dame has beaten Idaho & Evansville, before losing their most recent game to Purdue Fort Wayne.

The irish are young with a roster of 7 freshmen (including Mark Zachary IV - a CB from the football team recently added to the roster), 3 sophomores, 3 juniors (including Burton), 1 senior, & 2 grad students.

Likely starters are:
#10 Jalen Haralson (6'7/220 Fr G) A McDonald's All-American and the highest rated ever for UND in modern (not sure exactly what thai means) program history. Leads team with 14.7ppg. Has taken over as point guard since Burton's injury, leading the Irish in that stretch with 4.5 assist/game, but also 3.75 turnovers/game;
#11 Braeden Shrewsbury (6'4/205 Jr G) Son of 3rd-year coach Micah Shrewsbury. Scores 12.2ppg, including 42 3s on 48.8% shooting from 3.
#33 Carson Towt (6'8/250 Gr F) Spent 6 years(!) at Northern Arizona as a starter for most of 4 seasons, one red shirt year, and one year out injured. goes back to the 2019-20 season, so I suppose Covid factors into his ongoing eligibility. Led the nation in rebounding last season (12.4rpg), was 2nd team All-Big Sky, and unanimous 1st team Defense All-Big Sky. Leads team with 10.2rpg. Scores 6.6ppg on 61% FG shooting and 45% from the free throw line. Averages 3 fouls/game with 1 DQ.
#12 Garrett Sundra (6'11 230 So F)
#5 Cole Certa (6'5 205 So G) Has averaged 12.2ppg with 45.5% shooting from 3 in the past 5 games. Has connected on all 22 of his FT attempts this season. Hit the 3-pointer from the corner with 18 seconds remaining to get the 56-54 victory over Stanford last season.

Acouple of guys who started vs. Stanford last season now come off the bench - #13 Sir Mohammed (6'6/215 So G) and #14 Kebba Njie (6'10/255 Sr F).

In my previous post, I stressed the importance of this game. There are several reasons for that belief. First, this is the first ACC experience for half of Stanford's 8-man rotation - Okorie, Rohosy, Dent-Smith, & Giltay. Second, it should be one of the "easier" games on the schedule - Quad 3, at Maples, and playing as the favorite. And third, the way the schedule sets up, I think that how they play in this game could have a big impact on the team mentality in the coming weeks. Following this game Stanford faces a gauntlet of 5 Quad 1 games - Louisville, @ Va Tech, @ UVA, UNC, & Duke. Other than Va Tech, those are probably the 4 best teams in the ACC. If Stanford loses to Notre Dame, they face the very real possibility of being 0-6 whan Cal comes to Maples on January 24. A start like that would be tough to bounce back from. I'm hopeful that a win vs. Notre Dame would give them the belief and grit to compete through that stretch, maybe eke out a win somehow, and keep the spirits up until the schedule "lightens up" a bit.

In any case, I'll be there tomorrow trusting that Kyle & staff will have them ready to go.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - BobK - 12-29-2025

Wow so much info. Thank you
Agree we need this win to set the stage for more wins and confidence

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - magnus - 12-30-2025

Up 10-6 at the first TV timeout

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - JJJ - 12-30-2025

Irish on a 13-4 run, Okorie double teamed and finally scores with 5:45 to go.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - BobK - 12-30-2025

Imagine scoring 17 points and down just 5 at the half.
Sure hope we can make shots in the second half
7 points last 16 minutes.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - Madera86 - 12-30-2025

2 offensive rebounds vs their 12? Go out there and get those boards!!!

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - burger - 12-30-2025

One thing I've been noticing lately (not just this game, though it's extra bad today) is that our spacing on offense is terrible. Every time there's a drive or we run a pick and roll, someone is standing near the basket so that their defender can help.

Notre Dame is clearing out on their drives, so they get us 1-on-1.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - Hieronymus - 12-30-2025

So can we break 30? It’s mostly bad 3 after bad 3 right now. With an occasional blocked shot inside to mix it up.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - JJJ - 12-30-2025

Rebounds are finally bouncing our way, and we go on a run! 42-38!

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - BostonCard - 12-30-2025

Can someone remind me who the home team is? Who the hell is operating the clock?

Not that it matters since we can’t hit th broadside of a barn.

BC

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - chrisk - 12-30-2025

Playing like this, they could be doubled up on Friday.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - MV72018 - 12-30-2025

We shot 23% from the field, 13% from deep, and the two big guns were 3 for 14 each. PUTRID. Louisville must be salivating.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - burger - 12-30-2025

The pre-season coaches' poll that had us finishing 17th might have been optimistic.

Card10Fan - Card10Fan - 12-30-2025

(12-30-2025, 09:17 PM)burger Wrote: The pre-season coaches' poll that had us finishing 17th might have been optimistic.

I was thinking the same thing. Our nonconference did little to prepare us for ACC play and the ACC is much better than last year. This ND game at home was one we HAD to get. Doesn’t bode well for what’s ahead the next few weeks. We might be 0-6 to start conference play.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - Nobadeer - 12-30-2025

The two teams combined to miss 81 field goals!

Not sure when LSJU last scored as few as 40 points? It looks like they scored 42 in a loss at USC in early 2021. Tonight was also by far ND's lowest offensive output of its season.

LSJU was just 4 of 30 from three point range; and only 9 of 26 otherwise. If even a few of those shots go in, LSJU wins.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - JJJ - 12-30-2025

(12-30-2025, 11:28 PM)Nobadeer Wrote: The two teams combined to miss 81 field goals!

Not sure when LSJU last scored as few as 40 points? It looks like they scored 42 in a loss at USC in early 2021. Tonight was also by far ND's lowest offensive output of its season.

LSJU was just 4 of 30 from three point range; and only 9 of 26 otherwise. If even a few of those shots go in, LSJU wins.

Not that we really need to be reminded, but the telecast said Cal held us to 39 in 2022. I had deleted that from my memory banks.

39pts!

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - 2006alum - 12-31-2025

Yikes, let's hope the team adopts a "New Year, New You" mentality quickly. Hopefully we can chalk this up to Christmas holidays fatigue and rebound over the weekend, because if this accurately reflects our offensive potential again ACC teams, it's going to be a loooooong season.

RE: MBB: ACC Schedule Begins - vs. Notre Dame, 6pm Tuesday, ESPN2 - skip75 - 12-31-2025

Well that was disappointing. They came out ready to play for about the first 3 minutes. After that, shots didn't fall (partly due to the poor quality of a lot of the shots) and I saw way too many deer-in-the headlights looks.

My ACC preview that I thought was a bit pessimistic might turn out to have been too optimistic. The 0-6 start I feared could realistically become 0-8 or 0-10.

Several of the previous posts (see chrisk, MV72018, burger, Card10Fan, 2006alum) could be used as the preview for the Louisville game. Or maybe it could just be, "Looks grim!".