[Farm93]

What is alarming to me is even CA's shelter in place order, unless you need to get groceries, go to pharmacy, get takeout, go to the Laundromat, bank, or get gas, seems to track Italy's response.  Italy had its largest case increase so far on March 20.  Maybe the rate of spread will slow, but the numbers continue to pile up.  Only China's absolute stay inside no matter what, you get to come out once a week, actually seems to have stemmed the tide of infections.

I am very concerned that the shelter in place with so many exceptions is going to turn restaurants, grocery stores, and laundromats in particular, into massive virus transmission vectors and not do anything to appreciably slow spread.

Not quite...Korea and Japan have open societies and very densely packed urban areas.   The key was testing.   Test early, test everyone even remotely connected to known positive patients and then tell those that test positive to get away from everyone else ASAP.   Korea and Japan have citizens that are generally very compliant with government and healthcare orders, so they came forward and isolated as instructed.

Sadly for the USA testing early is way too late now, and we definitely didn't have that level of compliance anyway. 

We are left with the other half of China's strategy which has been Italy's strategy.   Shut everything down.   Sadly, for the USA Italy's approaches have not really worked.   There were too many moving around the country early.  So Italy moved from a regional shutdown to a national shutdown.   Then they took to getting their police on the streets.  If anything the USA has done even less than Italy.

So now we are banking on either the USA ingenuity to expand health care capabilities (unlikely) or we will have a widespread outbreak, developing some level of herd immunity.

My guess is historians will study the different responses to the pandemic.   Korea and Japan will be seen as the best approach for open societies.   The race is on between the USA and Italy for the worst response.    The USA seems destined to win.

In NYC they are still holding their farmer's market Saturday where small business farms from all over the region come in to sell produce to NYC residents, presumably going back to their home towns after the market closes.   That's insanity IMHO.

FWIW - I share your concerns.   Flattening the curve needs so many to work together and endure quite a bit of shared sacrifice.   That's just not happening in CA and definitely not happening across the USA.

[Farm93]

What is alarming to me is even CA's shelter in place order, unless you need to get groceries, go to pharmacy, get takeout, go to the Laundromat, bank, or get gas, seems to track Italy's response.  Italy had its largest case increase so far on March 20.  Maybe the rate of spread will slow, but the numbers continue to pile up.  Only China's absolute stay inside no matter what, you get to come out once a week, actually seems to have stemmed the tide of infections.

I am very concerned that the shelter in place with so many exceptions is going to turn restaurants, grocery stores, and laundromats in particular, into massive virus transmission vectors and not do anything to appreciably slow spread.

Not quite...Korea and Japan have open societies and very densely packed urban areas.   The key was testing.   Test early, test everyone even remotely connected to known positive patients and then tell those that test positive to get away from everyone else ASAP.   Korea and Japan have citizens that are generally very compliant with government and healthcare orders, so they came forward and isolated as instructed.

Sadly for the USA testing early is way too late now, and we definitely didn't have that level of compliance anyway. 

We are left with the other half of China's strategy which has been Italy's strategy.   Shut everything down.   Sadly, for the USA Italy's approaches have not really worked.   There were too many moving around the country early.  So Italy moved from a regional shutdown to a national shutdown.   Then they took to getting their police on the streets.  If anything the USA has done even less than Italy.

So now we are banking on either the USA ingenuity to expand health care capabilities (unlikely) or we will have a widespread outbreak, developing some level of herd immunity.

My guess is historians will study the different responses to the pandemic.   Korea and Japan will be seen as the best approach for open societies.   The race is on between the USA and Italy for the worst response.    The USA seems destined to win.

In NYC they are still holding their farmer's market Saturday where small business farms from all over the region come in to sell produce to NYC residents, presumably going back to their home towns after the market closes.   That's insanity IMHO.

FWIW - I share your concerns.   Flattening the curve needs so many to work together and endure quite a bit of shared sacrifice.   That's just not happening in CA and definitely not happening across the USA.