03-24-2020, 11:34 AM
I think part of the disagreement stems from the fact that some people are being absolutely hammered financially by the shutdown and are desperate to re-open (and in my opinion, are so desperate that they are willing to risk mass deaths).
I wish we could re-open. But,
1) People desperate for business to go "back to usual" are fooling themselves. For many industries, business will not go back to usual. People aren't going to go back to movies like usual, corporations aren't going to say, "Oh, Trump tells us it's safe so let's send all our employees to conferences now." People are't going to pack Disneyland. Companies aren't going to invest in major new systems (software, automation, new factories) with so much uncertainty. I don't see how sports can return with fans for a long time. So to an extent, a forced, premature re-opening has all the risk but will have limited benefit for many industries. It will kill people for nothing. And if/when the virus hits with even greater impact, the economic cost will end up being even greater.
2) Even in the recent NYTimes Friedman article, who also ponders a relatively quick re-opening, he lists an assumption that we just have to test more and contain better after a lockdown. Oh, is that all. We just need an effective, massive, competent, science-based, emotionally stable, rational government response that is willing to use Big Government and even Socialize/Nationalize industries when necessary, with credible leadership that brings out the best in *all* Americans for shared sacrifice and unity. Oh, see, we have nothing to worry about. By all means, re-open for business.
I wish we could re-open. But,
1) People desperate for business to go "back to usual" are fooling themselves. For many industries, business will not go back to usual. People aren't going to go back to movies like usual, corporations aren't going to say, "Oh, Trump tells us it's safe so let's send all our employees to conferences now." People are't going to pack Disneyland. Companies aren't going to invest in major new systems (software, automation, new factories) with so much uncertainty. I don't see how sports can return with fans for a long time. So to an extent, a forced, premature re-opening has all the risk but will have limited benefit for many industries. It will kill people for nothing. And if/when the virus hits with even greater impact, the economic cost will end up being even greater.
2) Even in the recent NYTimes Friedman article, who also ponders a relatively quick re-opening, he lists an assumption that we just have to test more and contain better after a lockdown. Oh, is that all. We just need an effective, massive, competent, science-based, emotionally stable, rational government response that is willing to use Big Government and even Socialize/Nationalize industries when necessary, with credible leadership that brings out the best in *all* Americans for shared sacrifice and unity. Oh, see, we have nothing to worry about. By all means, re-open for business.
