[Mick]

I watched a fascinating interview on DW (German English language news) with a German military and diplomatic expert last night. She said a lot of interesting things, but the most disconcerting were these:

1. Putin has been given "off ramps" to save face before (including during his Ukraine invasion force buildup) and has rejected all of them. Plus, his word is not trusted in any country involved at this point, so not only is there no off ramp available, nobody believes he will actually take it if he says he will. That means diplomacy is not an option and NATO military posture must be on high alert, ready to fight at a moment's notice for the foreseeable future. There literally is no way out right now even if Putin refuses to call things off on his own, because even if he did, he can't be trusted to not try invasion again. I mean look at all the insane claims he makes to justify breaking agreements and invasions. The latest I read this morning is "Ukraine is going to purposely blow up their nuclear reactors." Just unhinged, and a possible pretext for Russia destroying them. 

2. Russia has "tactical" nuclear weapons that NATO doesn't have in great numbers. For those unaware, tactical nukes are minimal yield ordnance that do much more damage than conventional weapons can to specific tactical targets (a rail yard or airport), but don't impact nearly as large a footprint or have as much nuclear fallout as strategic nukes designed to flatten everything in a city (10+ mile radius) and create great fallout. The fear is Putin will use a tactical nuke and dare NATO to respond. Because it wasn't "that bad," NATO and he doubts NATO will launch strategic nuclear retaliation (like taking out Moscow). Moreover, the U.S. only has less than 300 tactical nuclear weapons in it arsenal. Russia has many many more. IOW, we can't any longer be confident our nuclear weapon strategy is an actual deterrent to any nuclear weapon use by Russia, and being in this position gives Putin more room to damage his neighbors with NATO just watching the destruction.

She concluded by saying even though NATO wants to avoid getting involved in direct conflict with Russia, if genocide happens at a scale that outrages the world, or Putin tests NATO's resolve by invading a NATO country, maybe even Maldova, it will have no choice but to act against Russia. 

The best thing we can hope for is economic sanctions and global pariah status will effectuate some kind of change within Russia to weaken Putin's hold and force some kind regime change. Until then, Putin's inner circle of advisors known as the siloviki - not the Oligarchs - are the only ones who can stop him, and right now they are as much for the Ukraine operation as Putin is.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261

1. When the Editor in Chief of RT (Russia Today) Maria Baronova quit, she said she was convinced that the we were on the brink of a nuclear war.

2. Western officials think Russia may use chemical weapons in Ukraine.  If they bomb children's and maternity hospitals, I don't think they'd hold back on using Sarin gas.  They're already committing atrocities

3. The misery in Russia must be off the charts right now.  I'd hate to be Putin's food taster right now.

4. Sanctions to date include:
- SWIFT international bank messaging system has been cut off for Russian banks. As a result, the Russian ruble collapsed on 2/28, now worth less than a cent.
- Nord Stream 2 pipeline was decertified. $11 bils. pipeline running under the baltic sea from Russia to German to supply natural gas to Europe. Germany denied certification because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia has now entered into a deal to sell natural gas to China. American oil companies have terminated agreements made with Russian counterparts.
- Most nations have denied use of their airspace to Russian jets.
- Russian bank assets were frozen o n2/28/22 in the USA. OFAC is prohibiting U.S. citizens from engaging in transactions with Russian financial institutions.
- All NATO countries have announced sanctions, as have non-NATO countries Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland and Taiwan.

[Mick]

I watched a fascinating interview on DW (German English language news) with a German military and diplomatic expert last night. She said a lot of interesting things, but the most disconcerting were these:

1. Putin has been given "off ramps" to save face before (including during his Ukraine invasion force buildup) and has rejected all of them. Plus, his word is not trusted in any country involved at this point, so not only is there no off ramp available, nobody believes he will actually take it if he says he will. That means diplomacy is not an option and NATO military posture must be on high alert, ready to fight at a moment's notice for the foreseeable future. There literally is no way out right now even if Putin refuses to call things off on his own, because even if he did, he can't be trusted to not try invasion again. I mean look at all the insane claims he makes to justify breaking agreements and invasions. The latest I read this morning is "Ukraine is going to purposely blow up their nuclear reactors." Just unhinged, and a possible pretext for Russia destroying them. 

2. Russia has "tactical" nuclear weapons that NATO doesn't have in great numbers. For those unaware, tactical nukes are minimal yield ordnance that do much more damage than conventional weapons can to specific tactical targets (a rail yard or airport), but don't impact nearly as large a footprint or have as much nuclear fallout as strategic nukes designed to flatten everything in a city (10+ mile radius) and create great fallout. The fear is Putin will use a tactical nuke and dare NATO to respond. Because it wasn't "that bad," NATO and he doubts NATO will launch strategic nuclear retaliation (like taking out Moscow). Moreover, the U.S. only has less than 300 tactical nuclear weapons in it arsenal. Russia has many many more. IOW, we can't any longer be confident our nuclear weapon strategy is an actual deterrent to any nuclear weapon use by Russia, and being in this position gives Putin more room to damage his neighbors with NATO just watching the destruction.

She concluded by saying even though NATO wants to avoid getting involved in direct conflict with Russia, if genocide happens at a scale that outrages the world, or Putin tests NATO's resolve by invading a NATO country, maybe even Maldova, it will have no choice but to act against Russia. 

The best thing we can hope for is economic sanctions and global pariah status will effectuate some kind of change within Russia to weaken Putin's hold and force some kind regime change. Until then, Putin's inner circle of advisors known as the siloviki - not the Oligarchs - are the only ones who can stop him, and right now they are as much for the Ukraine operation as Putin is.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60573261

1. When the Editor in Chief of RT (Russia Today) Maria Baronova quit, she said she was convinced that the we were on the brink of a nuclear war.

2. Western officials think Russia may use chemical weapons in Ukraine.  If they bomb children's and maternity hospitals, I don't think they'd hold back on using Sarin gas.  They're already committing atrocities

3. The misery in Russia must be off the charts right now.  I'd hate to be Putin's food taster right now.

4. Sanctions to date include:
- SWIFT international bank messaging system has been cut off for Russian banks. As a result, the Russian ruble collapsed on 2/28, now worth less than a cent.
- Nord Stream 2 pipeline was decertified. $11 bils. pipeline running under the baltic sea from Russia to German to supply natural gas to Europe. Germany denied certification because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia has now entered into a deal to sell natural gas to China. American oil companies have terminated agreements made with Russian counterparts.
- Most nations have denied use of their airspace to Russian jets.
- Russian bank assets were frozen o n2/28/22 in the USA. OFAC is prohibiting U.S. citizens from engaging in transactions with Russian financial institutions.
- All NATO countries have announced sanctions, as have non-NATO countries Australia, China, Japan, New Zealand, Singapore, Switzerland and Taiwan.