[BostonCard]

If Russia uses chemical weapons it won’t be for tactical advantage, but to terrorize the population and put pressure on Zelensky to capitulate lest more innocent civilians become victims of the terror.

I don’t think there is a high chance of Russia invading another country, let alone NATO. Given how utterly badly the invasion of Ukraine is going for him, he’d be a fool to try to go anywhere else. Virtually all of his mobilized army is stuck in a morass in Ukraine.

The bigger risk is that sensing a loss in Ukraine or a stalemate, that Russia will pursue increasingly aggressive and unacceptable measures. He’s already used cluster bombs against civilian targets, and it sounds like he’s used a thermobaric bomb. He can use increasingly desperate measures from there; chemical weapons, a nuclear weapon, etc.

I think NATO is playing a fine balancing act, helping the Ukrainian’s with arms without getting drawn directly into the conflict. The problem is getting the balance right. So far, arming Ukrainians hasn’t provoked a response (probably because Russia can’t afford one), but the more NATO tries to, the greater the risk of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, and the greater the risk that it escalates into a global thermonuclear war. A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

BC

[BostonCard]

If Russia uses chemical weapons it won’t be for tactical advantage, but to terrorize the population and put pressure on Zelensky to capitulate lest more innocent civilians become victims of the terror.

I don’t think there is a high chance of Russia invading another country, let alone NATO. Given how utterly badly the invasion of Ukraine is going for him, he’d be a fool to try to go anywhere else. Virtually all of his mobilized army is stuck in a morass in Ukraine.

The bigger risk is that sensing a loss in Ukraine or a stalemate, that Russia will pursue increasingly aggressive and unacceptable measures. He’s already used cluster bombs against civilian targets, and it sounds like he’s used a thermobaric bomb. He can use increasingly desperate measures from there; chemical weapons, a nuclear weapon, etc.

I think NATO is playing a fine balancing act, helping the Ukrainian’s with arms without getting drawn directly into the conflict. The problem is getting the balance right. So far, arming Ukrainians hasn’t provoked a response (probably because Russia can’t afford one), but the more NATO tries to, the greater the risk of a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia, and the greater the risk that it escalates into a global thermonuclear war. A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

BC