[81alum]

2. Western officials think Russia may use chemical weapons in Ukraine.  If they bomb children's and maternity hospitals, I don't think they'd hold back on using Sarin gas.  They're already committing atrocities

Highly improbable IMHO. The concern about chemical weapons has been around since WW I, but they have essentially never been used in a "serious" war despite both sides having the capability to do so. The two reasons for this are that 1) CBW precautions slow down the attacker significantly. Given what appears to be the low standard of training of the Russian military, many of their troops would undoubtedly be unable to correctly/quickly suit up and would be killed too. It doesn't result in a net advantage. 2) It justifies the other side doing similar things. In this case, it would also seriously increase the probability of US/NATO/EU increasing their involvement on the grounds the Russians have seriously violated the rules of "civilized" warfare.



The Russians won't be held back by moral scruples, but rather by the calculus of low benefit/high cost. The have plenty of technical superiority already. They don't need to take such a risk.

Goose, on August 21, 2013, the Syrian government dispersed sarin gas via rocket barrage on the town of Ghouta, just outside of Damascus.  The gas killed 1400 people.  It was so horrific that international pressure forced Syria to destroy its stockpile and finally sign onto the international treaties banning chemical warfare.

But that did not last long.  As the Syrian civil war dragged on and Russia intervened on the government's behalf in 2015, Syria began the use of chemical weapons again.  The crucial turning point was the battle for the largest city--Aleppo.  The Russian-backed government forces surrounded and sealed off the city, pummeled it with artillery and bombs and refused for months to let the starving population leave.  During this time helicopters dropped barrel bombs loaded with chlorine gas, block by block.  Chlorine worked well for their purposes since in the right conditions it settles low into basements and bunkers where people attempt to hide from shelling and bombs.  Surviving the chlorine means going up to the top of rubble heaps.  Surviving the shelling means going down into basements.  In this way the largest city in Syria, and one of the most beautiful and most historic, was turned into a circle of hell.  Human rights groups count 336 separate uses of poison gas in that war--including sarin gas, chlorine, and a few instances of sulpher mustard gas.

Syria got its poison gas capacity from the Soviet Union in the 1970s.  Following the destruction of its stockpile in 2013, it created a new supply with Russian help, and used Russian tactics and Russian aircraft in deploying it.

That's what I meant when I called Aleppo "Putin's Guernica."  Years before Hitler invaded Poland his forces intervened in the Spanish Civil War and tried out their tactics there. Putin learned from Aleppo and appears to be applying its lessons now. All that is lacking so far is the use of poison gas.  And Russia has more of it than any other country on earth.

I am terribly dismayed by what is yet to come, and am beginning to wonder if it is realistic to believe that the war can be contained.

[81alum]

2. Western officials think Russia may use chemical weapons in Ukraine.  If they bomb children's and maternity hospitals, I don't think they'd hold back on using Sarin gas.  They're already committing atrocities

Highly improbable IMHO. The concern about chemical weapons has been around since WW I, but they have essentially never been used in a "serious" war despite both sides having the capability to do so. The two reasons for this are that 1) CBW precautions slow down the attacker significantly. Given what appears to be the low standard of training of the Russian military, many of their troops would undoubtedly be unable to correctly/quickly suit up and would be killed too. It doesn't result in a net advantage. 2) It justifies the other side doing similar things. In this case, it would also seriously increase the probability of US/NATO/EU increasing their involvement on the grounds the Russians have seriously violated the rules of "civilized" warfare.



The Russians won't be held back by moral scruples, but rather by the calculus of low benefit/high cost. The have plenty of technical superiority already. They don't need to take such a risk.

Goose, on August 21, 2013, the Syrian government dispersed sarin gas via rocket barrage on the town of Ghouta, just outside of Damascus.  The gas killed 1400 people.  It was so horrific that international pressure forced Syria to destroy its stockpile and finally sign onto the international treaties banning chemical warfare.

But that did not last long.  As the Syrian civil war dragged on and Russia intervened on the government's behalf in 2015, Syria began the use of chemical weapons again.  The crucial turning point was the battle for the largest city--Aleppo.  The Russian-backed government forces surrounded and sealed off the city, pummeled it with artillery and bombs and refused for months to let the starving population leave.  During this time helicopters dropped barrel bombs loaded with chlorine gas, block by block.  Chlorine worked well for their purposes since in the right conditions it settles low into basements and bunkers where people attempt to hide from shelling and bombs.  Surviving the chlorine means going up to the top of rubble heaps.  Surviving the shelling means going down into basements.  In this way the largest city in Syria, and one of the most beautiful and most historic, was turned into a circle of hell.  Human rights groups count 336 separate uses of poison gas in that war--including sarin gas, chlorine, and a few instances of sulpher mustard gas.

Syria got its poison gas capacity from the Soviet Union in the 1970s.  Following the destruction of its stockpile in 2013, it created a new supply with Russian help, and used Russian tactics and Russian aircraft in deploying it.

That's what I meant when I called Aleppo "Putin's Guernica."  Years before Hitler invaded Poland his forces intervened in the Spanish Civil War and tried out their tactics there. Putin learned from Aleppo and appears to be applying its lessons now. All that is lacking so far is the use of poison gas.  And Russia has more of it than any other country on earth.

I am terribly dismayed by what is yet to come, and am beginning to wonder if it is realistic to believe that the war can be contained.