[dabigv13]

There is no way at this point for Russia to "win", that is accomplish their political objectives of regime change and a puppet Ukraine. Russia doesn't have the troops to defeat and occupy Ukraine. Even if their initial operation to take Kiev and assassinate Zelensky had been a success a la the storming of Tajbeg palace, just like in Afghanistan this would only lead to a festering wound that would continually hurt Russia.

Of course Putin probably can't abide a loss. So end states for the conflict in my mind are three 1) Putin murdered by FSB 2) Ukraine cedes Crimea and Donbas formally, there is some formal neutrality declaration (this probably is not a stable end state) 3) nuclear exchange.

Pretty soon Russia will not be able to mount effective offensive operations if their best units are all non-functioning and they still don't have air superiority.

Also, my inclination on the Mig resupply is that it is cool and we should provide some, even if it is likely only a small gain for their operations. At least we should be providing Mig spares and missiles so that if Ukraine still has ample pilots and airframes they can keep them fighting. Tow them across the border, lend-lease style, and dare Russia to try and hit them with long range missiles, which by early experience are likely not accurate enough to accomplish this and are probably running low already. 

Providing more S300 SAMs and more advanced British MANPADS would be far more useful to Ukrainian defense than the Migs of course, but as a policy issue, we shouldn't let Russian nuclear threats limit the arms we supply. US and USSR fought plenty of proxy wars, and it's not like jets were ever off the table, though USSR leadership I trust more to avoid an offensive nuclear strike than Putin and all the power he has reserved to himself.

[dabigv13]

There is no way at this point for Russia to "win", that is accomplish their political objectives of regime change and a puppet Ukraine. Russia doesn't have the troops to defeat and occupy Ukraine. Even if their initial operation to take Kiev and assassinate Zelensky had been a success a la the storming of Tajbeg palace, just like in Afghanistan this would only lead to a festering wound that would continually hurt Russia.

Of course Putin probably can't abide a loss. So end states for the conflict in my mind are three 1) Putin murdered by FSB 2) Ukraine cedes Crimea and Donbas formally, there is some formal neutrality declaration (this probably is not a stable end state) 3) nuclear exchange.

Pretty soon Russia will not be able to mount effective offensive operations if their best units are all non-functioning and they still don't have air superiority.

Also, my inclination on the Mig resupply is that it is cool and we should provide some, even if it is likely only a small gain for their operations. At least we should be providing Mig spares and missiles so that if Ukraine still has ample pilots and airframes they can keep them fighting. Tow them across the border, lend-lease style, and dare Russia to try and hit them with long range missiles, which by early experience are likely not accurate enough to accomplish this and are probably running low already. 

Providing more S300 SAMs and more advanced British MANPADS would be far more useful to Ukrainian defense than the Migs of course, but as a policy issue, we shouldn't let Russian nuclear threats limit the arms we supply. US and USSR fought plenty of proxy wars, and it's not like jets were ever off the table, though USSR leadership I trust more to avoid an offensive nuclear strike than Putin and all the power he has reserved to himself.