[Goose]

Russia has 75% of their total combat power in Ukraine, and increasing, and still they are making no progress, running out of their best material and soldiers.

If Ukraine can hold out, I don't think it's out of the question that they could reclaim Crimea and Donbas. Good chance this could trigger a nuclear response however.

I think that reclaiming these areas is very unlikely. The Russians are making no progress in attacking. Defending is probably another story. Lots easier to do. Only if the Russian military actually collapses (not impossible, but I wouldn't count on it) can Ukraine reclaim anything. I question that Ukraine can actually drive Russia out if Russia just stops where they are. Russia only suffers large losses when they attack. Stop attacking and it is the US in Afghanistan. You can't win but you can tolerate the casualty situation essentially forever. How long can Ukraine sustain their military effort under those conditions? How long can Russia? That is the real doomsday scenario IMHO.

[Goose]

Russia has 75% of their total combat power in Ukraine, and increasing, and still they are making no progress, running out of their best material and soldiers.

If Ukraine can hold out, I don't think it's out of the question that they could reclaim Crimea and Donbas. Good chance this could trigger a nuclear response however.

I think that reclaiming these areas is very unlikely. The Russians are making no progress in attacking. Defending is probably another story. Lots easier to do. Only if the Russian military actually collapses (not impossible, but I wouldn't count on it) can Ukraine reclaim anything. I question that Ukraine can actually drive Russia out if Russia just stops where they are. Russia only suffers large losses when they attack. Stop attacking and it is the US in Afghanistan. You can't win but you can tolerate the casualty situation essentially forever. How long can Ukraine sustain their military effort under those conditions? How long can Russia? That is the real doomsday scenario IMHO.