[dabigv13]

Well I don't know that it's likely, but I think it's a lot more likely that Ukraine retakes those areas than Russia takes and holds Kiev.

Russia is suffering more KIA in a couple weeks in Ukraine than the average monthly KIA for US during WW2, and the losses thus far have been disproportionately to their best soldiers and equipment.

If we take 7000 as KIA, likely there are ~25k Russian soldiers dead or wounded by now. At this rate their entire invasion force will be dead or wounded in 3 to 4 months. 

We don't know Ukrainian losses but they are probably much less than Russia given their advantage as defenders. And their army and territorial defense forces are far more numerous than the Russian invasion force.

I think a Russian military collapse is more likely than not at this point. And they certainly have not secured the areas their troops "occupy" from this offensive so I think their hold is very tenuous on those areas. Plenty of videos of supply trucks being ambushed near Russian border well behind the ostensible front lines, and the local populace hates them. This is not 2014.

[dabigv13]

Well I don't know that it's likely, but I think it's a lot more likely that Ukraine retakes those areas than Russia takes and holds Kiev.

Russia is suffering more KIA in a couple weeks in Ukraine than the average monthly KIA for US during WW2, and the losses thus far have been disproportionately to their best soldiers and equipment.

If we take 7000 as KIA, likely there are ~25k Russian soldiers dead or wounded by now. At this rate their entire invasion force will be dead or wounded in 3 to 4 months. 

We don't know Ukrainian losses but they are probably much less than Russia given their advantage as defenders. And their army and territorial defense forces are far more numerous than the Russian invasion force.

I think a Russian military collapse is more likely than not at this point. And they certainly have not secured the areas their troops "occupy" from this offensive so I think their hold is very tenuous on those areas. Plenty of videos of supply trucks being ambushed near Russian border well behind the ostensible front lines, and the local populace hates them. This is not 2014.