[Goose]

The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

I am not so sure Russia is done on offense. They have massively under-performed. Why so and can they fix it? My guess is they can't, but Russia has surprised before. If Ukraine goes on offense it may create openings to flip the script. They have been counted out before. Different war, but who can say for sure that Putin can't create some incident to turn this into "Great Patriotic War" somehow?

Suppose the Russian offensive stalls but Russia settles into trying to bombard the Ukrainian cities into submission, with only world opinion to stop them. Who will hold out longer: the Ukrainian people or Putin?

I really don't know. I don't think anybody does, which makes it even more dangerous. You would think that Russia would cave first, because for them it never has been an existential war. For Ukraine it is, so they will hold out until they simply don't have the power to continue. However, when people assert Russia can't stand the casualties etc., consider they have done it before. It seems the Russian populace remains fatalistic, thinking they have no choice, no input, and just have to survive what happens to them. That give Putin a very long leash. The degree that has changed, and to the degree that they get the real story of events, IMHO controls how long Putin can hang on. I have no idea what that result will be.

[Goose]

The Russian offensive is done or close to it. Whether we see a stalemate or a Russian collapse is the only question to me.

I am not so sure Russia is done on offense. They have massively under-performed. Why so and can they fix it? My guess is they can't, but Russia has surprised before. If Ukraine goes on offense it may create openings to flip the script. They have been counted out before. Different war, but who can say for sure that Putin can't create some incident to turn this into "Great Patriotic War" somehow?

Suppose the Russian offensive stalls but Russia settles into trying to bombard the Ukrainian cities into submission, with only world opinion to stop them. Who will hold out longer: the Ukrainian people or Putin?

I really don't know. I don't think anybody does, which makes it even more dangerous. You would think that Russia would cave first, because for them it never has been an existential war. For Ukraine it is, so they will hold out until they simply don't have the power to continue. However, when people assert Russia can't stand the casualties etc., consider they have done it before. It seems the Russian populace remains fatalistic, thinking they have no choice, no input, and just have to survive what happens to them. That give Putin a very long leash. The degree that has changed, and to the degree that they get the real story of events, IMHO controls how long Putin can hang on. I have no idea what that result will be.