[Goose]

In my view the best evaluation of the Ukraine war situation.

Russia is almost totally stalled at this point and in some situations Ukraine is counter attacking.  I think the real question is if the Russians will reinforce their units and they could easily double or triple the number of units on the battlefield.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1505043913652027393

They have more forces available, but they are having trouble supplying the ones the have already deployed. More troops may just make the supply problem worse. This will be especially true if things are done ad hoc without an overall plan, which right now seems to be the Russian MO.
Unfortunately the Ukraine has essentially no ability to strike into Russia, so Russia can keep firing missiles unto Ukraine until they run out of them. That won't be soon. It is unclear which approach Russia is going to use, flood the area with more troops or stand off and blow things up. Either one is possible. Adding more troops carries the most risk, as casualties could increase significantly as lower quality formations are used. No telling what Putin will do. Doing both makes little sense, as it increases risks more than benefits.

[Goose]

In my view the best evaluation of the Ukraine war situation.

Russia is almost totally stalled at this point and in some situations Ukraine is counter attacking.  I think the real question is if the Russians will reinforce their units and they could easily double or triple the number of units on the battlefield.

https://twitter.com/JominiW/status/1505043913652027393

They have more forces available, but they are having trouble supplying the ones the have already deployed. More troops may just make the supply problem worse. This will be especially true if things are done ad hoc without an overall plan, which right now seems to be the Russian MO.
Unfortunately the Ukraine has essentially no ability to strike into Russia, so Russia can keep firing missiles unto Ukraine until they run out of them. That won't be soon. It is unclear which approach Russia is going to use, flood the area with more troops or stand off and blow things up. Either one is possible. Adding more troops carries the most risk, as casualties could increase significantly as lower quality formations are used. No telling what Putin will do. Doing both makes little sense, as it increases risks more than benefits.