[thatboy]

 though given how poorly tanks have performed in this war (and in the recent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan) over Nagorno-Karabakh, maybe that’s a plus.

Taiwan is horrible tank country. It is hills and hills, even more so than Italy. Tanks aren't going to be much use there, independent of anti-tank weapons. 2/3 of the country is mountains. It is an infantry fight, which doesn't directly favor technological approaches. As you say, preventing the infantry from getting there is your best bet.

If I am Taiwan, I invest in anti-ship misiles, drones, and other technologies.

BC

Anti-ship weapons and stand-off weapons to keep the invader out and to make it difficult to supply his forces if he lands is the best approach. If he lands and can build up numbers, you are going to lose. Slowly perhaps, but you will lose. The US invasions in the pacific islands show clearly that once an island is invaded by a sustainable force and cut off from reinforcement, it is all over. Lots of people will die in the fight, but the result is not in doubt.

I've long thought that China will not invade Taiwan, but instead eventually blockade the island and use their own form of economic sanctions against Taiwan. They could isolate the island physically and economically -- basically like a siege at a castle -- until the Taiwanese are forced to negotiate and make some kind of agreement.

Perhaps such a blockade is unrealistic. I don't know much about naval strategy and how easily or difficult it would be to enforce such a blockade, but that is my best uneducated guess.

[thatboy]

 though given how poorly tanks have performed in this war (and in the recent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan) over Nagorno-Karabakh, maybe that’s a plus.

Taiwan is horrible tank country. It is hills and hills, even more so than Italy. Tanks aren't going to be much use there, independent of anti-tank weapons. 2/3 of the country is mountains. It is an infantry fight, which doesn't directly favor technological approaches. As you say, preventing the infantry from getting there is your best bet.

If I am Taiwan, I invest in anti-ship misiles, drones, and other technologies.

BC

Anti-ship weapons and stand-off weapons to keep the invader out and to make it difficult to supply his forces if he lands is the best approach. If he lands and can build up numbers, you are going to lose. Slowly perhaps, but you will lose. The US invasions in the pacific islands show clearly that once an island is invaded by a sustainable force and cut off from reinforcement, it is all over. Lots of people will die in the fight, but the result is not in doubt.

I've long thought that China will not invade Taiwan, but instead eventually blockade the island and use their own form of economic sanctions against Taiwan. They could isolate the island physically and economically -- basically like a siege at a castle -- until the Taiwanese are forced to negotiate and make some kind of agreement.

Perhaps such a blockade is unrealistic. I don't know much about naval strategy and how easily or difficult it would be to enforce such a blockade, but that is my best uneducated guess.