[Goose]

I've long thought that China will not invade Taiwan, but instead eventually blockade the island and use their own form of economic sanctions against Taiwan. They could isolate the island physically and economically -- basically like a siege at a castle -- until the Taiwanese are forced to negotiate and make some kind of agreement.


Perhaps such a blockade is unrealistic. I don't know much about naval strategy and how easily or difficult it would be to enforce such a blockade, but that is my best uneducated guess.

It is certainly an option. It has been conventional wisdom that close blockade is impossible (since WWI) because submarines (and later aircraft) would impose unsustainable losses on the blockading force. More distant blockade has worked, but it requires a much larger navy. China is building that navy. It also requires the ability to maintain sea control over a wide area. If the US (and allies) decided to challenge a wide-area blockade, Taiwan would have a pretty good chance. Alone, they would have no chance as they could not inflict enough damage on the blockading force to open viable routes to the island.
The other issue would be that a wide-area blockade could severely damage Chinese trade. If the US and it's allies imposed economic sanctions on China for such a blockade, that might impose such a cost on China that it couldn't sustain the blockade. If the US and it's allies imposed a counter-blockade (at a greater distance), China would have to fold or start a naval war. China relies too much on imports to weather a blockade. Even if the population would accept it, the industrial collapse it would produce would be intolerable (IMHO).
What the US would actually do is an unknown. Strategic ambiguity is probably our only reasonable position. If we say what we will and won't do, it allows China to target weaknesses in the chosen strategy without worrying (as much anyway) that we will respond differently. However, we do need to have a planed response. It will be difficult to add-lib and time does matter in blockades. Just make sure nobody knows what it is.

[Goose]

I've long thought that China will not invade Taiwan, but instead eventually blockade the island and use their own form of economic sanctions against Taiwan. They could isolate the island physically and economically -- basically like a siege at a castle -- until the Taiwanese are forced to negotiate and make some kind of agreement.


Perhaps such a blockade is unrealistic. I don't know much about naval strategy and how easily or difficult it would be to enforce such a blockade, but that is my best uneducated guess.

It is certainly an option. It has been conventional wisdom that close blockade is impossible (since WWI) because submarines (and later aircraft) would impose unsustainable losses on the blockading force. More distant blockade has worked, but it requires a much larger navy. China is building that navy. It also requires the ability to maintain sea control over a wide area. If the US (and allies) decided to challenge a wide-area blockade, Taiwan would have a pretty good chance. Alone, they would have no chance as they could not inflict enough damage on the blockading force to open viable routes to the island.
The other issue would be that a wide-area blockade could severely damage Chinese trade. If the US and it's allies imposed economic sanctions on China for such a blockade, that might impose such a cost on China that it couldn't sustain the blockade. If the US and it's allies imposed a counter-blockade (at a greater distance), China would have to fold or start a naval war. China relies too much on imports to weather a blockade. Even if the population would accept it, the industrial collapse it would produce would be intolerable (IMHO).
What the US would actually do is an unknown. Strategic ambiguity is probably our only reasonable position. If we say what we will and won't do, it allows China to target weaknesses in the chosen strategy without worrying (as much anyway) that we will respond differently. However, we do need to have a planed response. It will be difficult to add-lib and time does matter in blockades. Just make sure nobody knows what it is.