[Goose]

You could envision the Russians occupying all of the Donbas, capturing Mariupol and thus the entire Azov sea coast to link up the Donbas to the Crimea, and calling it a day.  Or perhaps marching all the way to Odessa and leaving Ukraine land-locked.


Under those circumstances, Ukraine will continue to be a nation-state, and thus survived, but would have given up substantial amounts of territory.



BC

I think Ukraine could possibly accept the Azov sea coast being lost. They wouldn't like that, but Russia controls the access already at the Kerch peninsula. I think the Ukraine will keep fighting as long as they are able to do so at all, regardless of cost, in order to keep Odessa. Relying on Romania as a corridor for exports is not really viable. Ukraine is poor, Romania is arguably poorer. There is at present not much infrastructure to export grain that way. No money to build it. On top of that, Ukraine would be at such a strategic disadvantage Russia could gobble them up later whenever they felt like it. Enclosed on three sides from which they can be attacked is just not viable. The previous situation before the war was bad enough.

[Goose]

You could envision the Russians occupying all of the Donbas, capturing Mariupol and thus the entire Azov sea coast to link up the Donbas to the Crimea, and calling it a day.  Or perhaps marching all the way to Odessa and leaving Ukraine land-locked.


Under those circumstances, Ukraine will continue to be a nation-state, and thus survived, but would have given up substantial amounts of territory.



BC

I think Ukraine could possibly accept the Azov sea coast being lost. They wouldn't like that, but Russia controls the access already at the Kerch peninsula. I think the Ukraine will keep fighting as long as they are able to do so at all, regardless of cost, in order to keep Odessa. Relying on Romania as a corridor for exports is not really viable. Ukraine is poor, Romania is arguably poorer. There is at present not much infrastructure to export grain that way. No money to build it. On top of that, Ukraine would be at such a strategic disadvantage Russia could gobble them up later whenever they felt like it. Enclosed on three sides from which they can be attacked is just not viable. The previous situation before the war was bad enough.