03-28-2022, 05:50 PM
(03-28-2022, 05:39 PM)gailtate Wrote: The larger question is what becomes of a Russia in 2022-23 that is bogged down and imminently beholding a vintage '80s Afghanistan on its doorstep? Five, ten years from now can you see Putin thriving and flourishing at the top of a robust, world power the way he fancies himself? More likely, he blows his brains out in a bunker or gets them blown out, a la Ghaddafi, in the Kremlin. His resources are unsustainable to put it generously. What happens to his Potemkin empire and its mangy-mongrel military of starving conscripts? Yes, he has nukes but how long can he count on the loyalty of his enforcers, on endless months of rotten chow and contaminated water (think dysentery, to loyally lock and load?All good questions, to which I don't have an answer. Five or ten years is too far out there IMHO. If Putin is still around then, Ukraine is part of Russia. Even if I knew how long Putin could remain in control, is that longer than Ukraine can hold on? Also, will the EU hold on if Putin simply cuts off their gas? There are lots of moving parts in this situation, and I greatly fear that the US/EU are not making contingency plans for these eventualities.