[Goose]

Not sure there is much justification for your pessimism that Ukraine will lose the Donbas and eventually become a vassal state of Russia. Ukraine has taken the initiative and is counterattacking on all fronts. Russia has given up on taking Kiev, and this will free more Ukrainian troops to reinforce Donbas after they have mopped up any left over Russian troops from the north.

IMHO Ukraine will not be reinforcing their forces in the Donbas. The Donbas is gone when Mariupol falls completely and Russia has complete control of the Sea of Azov coastline. While the Ukraine has done a great job of defending Kiev, remember this is being done largely by a relatively immobile infantry force. The ability to move large numbers of troops around is not something the Ukraine has demonstrated. If Ukraine can either relieve Mariupol or make a major offensive South of there it would indeed be a big deal, but so far that appears unlikely. The Ukrainians have been attacking around Kherson in the South. If they could actually cut communications with Crimea, that would make a big difference, but it is a big ask.
While Russia is consolidating in the North, they are still there. Ukraine can't just pull out all their forces, because Putin can come back pretty easily. I will agree with your optimism when I see these counterattacks actually cut off some Russian units. So far, it appears to me Russia is still mostly dictating where the fighting is going on and at what intensity. Retreating to fight another day is a Russian option, but not a Ukrainian one.

Most likely outcome of the war is Ukraine joining EU and probably receiving many millions to rebuild, probably losing little or no territory de facto, even if they disclaim Crimea and the portions of Donbas they haven't controlled since 2014.

Change millions to billions. Hopefully it is frozen Russian assets. I hope such a peace is possible, but there are big problems with this. Russia right now or soon will have cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov. Getting them to give that up isn't going to be easy. It makes a land bridge to Crimea, which they didn't have before. Ukraine has also said they won't surrender territory. While that may not inhibit a cease fire, it will be a non-starter for a peace treaty. Ukraine would need to formally give up the territories the Russians had previously controlled. Before the war, that might have been possible. Right now, it looks very difficult. Too many Ukrainians have died.

I do agree that continuing sanctions in face of rising energy prices and domestic political concerns will be tough to continue in such unified fashion. But NATO is not who is stopping Russian advances, it's Ukraine, and they are the ones who will decide acceptable terms. If there were no sanctions at all, the on the ground situation would be no different.

IMHO Ukraine has stopped the Russian because of their great courage AND because NATO has given them an inexhaustible supply of defensive weapons. Without that supply, they would be defeated long ago. I would also say that I hope it will be Ukraine that will decide acceptable terms, but it won't totally be the case. They need continued financial and logistical support from NATO. Without that, they won't last long.
Without sanctions, Russia could just wait Ukraine out. The economy of Ukraine is wrecked. If the Russian economy was in good shape, they could take as long as they want to finish the job. Russia can shoot missiles into Ukraine forever without sanctions. With sanctions, at some point they no longer can because they can't get the parts and can't pay for them anyway. I think sanctions matter a whole lot.
An even more vexing issue is going to be meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine. No NATO membership is acceptable, but paper guarantees of future security will not be. What will?

[Goose]

Not sure there is much justification for your pessimism that Ukraine will lose the Donbas and eventually become a vassal state of Russia. Ukraine has taken the initiative and is counterattacking on all fronts. Russia has given up on taking Kiev, and this will free more Ukrainian troops to reinforce Donbas after they have mopped up any left over Russian troops from the north.

IMHO Ukraine will not be reinforcing their forces in the Donbas. The Donbas is gone when Mariupol falls completely and Russia has complete control of the Sea of Azov coastline. While the Ukraine has done a great job of defending Kiev, remember this is being done largely by a relatively immobile infantry force. The ability to move large numbers of troops around is not something the Ukraine has demonstrated. If Ukraine can either relieve Mariupol or make a major offensive South of there it would indeed be a big deal, but so far that appears unlikely. The Ukrainians have been attacking around Kherson in the South. If they could actually cut communications with Crimea, that would make a big difference, but it is a big ask.
While Russia is consolidating in the North, they are still there. Ukraine can't just pull out all their forces, because Putin can come back pretty easily. I will agree with your optimism when I see these counterattacks actually cut off some Russian units. So far, it appears to me Russia is still mostly dictating where the fighting is going on and at what intensity. Retreating to fight another day is a Russian option, but not a Ukrainian one.

Most likely outcome of the war is Ukraine joining EU and probably receiving many millions to rebuild, probably losing little or no territory de facto, even if they disclaim Crimea and the portions of Donbas they haven't controlled since 2014.

Change millions to billions. Hopefully it is frozen Russian assets. I hope such a peace is possible, but there are big problems with this. Russia right now or soon will have cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov. Getting them to give that up isn't going to be easy. It makes a land bridge to Crimea, which they didn't have before. Ukraine has also said they won't surrender territory. While that may not inhibit a cease fire, it will be a non-starter for a peace treaty. Ukraine would need to formally give up the territories the Russians had previously controlled. Before the war, that might have been possible. Right now, it looks very difficult. Too many Ukrainians have died.

I do agree that continuing sanctions in face of rising energy prices and domestic political concerns will be tough to continue in such unified fashion. But NATO is not who is stopping Russian advances, it's Ukraine, and they are the ones who will decide acceptable terms. If there were no sanctions at all, the on the ground situation would be no different.

IMHO Ukraine has stopped the Russian because of their great courage AND because NATO has given them an inexhaustible supply of defensive weapons. Without that supply, they would be defeated long ago. I would also say that I hope it will be Ukraine that will decide acceptable terms, but it won't totally be the case. They need continued financial and logistical support from NATO. Without that, they won't last long.
Without sanctions, Russia could just wait Ukraine out. The economy of Ukraine is wrecked. If the Russian economy was in good shape, they could take as long as they want to finish the job. Russia can shoot missiles into Ukraine forever without sanctions. With sanctions, at some point they no longer can because they can't get the parts and can't pay for them anyway. I think sanctions matter a whole lot.
An even more vexing issue is going to be meaningful security guarantees for Ukraine. No NATO membership is acceptable, but paper guarantees of future security will not be. What will?