[Goose]

Of course Ukrainians have eventually as an option.  They are going to keep fighting until they win and the threat is existential.


Russian has conquered a small part of Ukraine.  Farms will be planted in the spring and food will be grown.

No, it unfortunately is not and mostly will not be planted. That is a big world wide problem causing the UN to forecast serious world-wide shortages. The farmers have picked up weapons and are fighting. They largely can't do both. The wheat they would grow can't be shipped because Russia controls the South coast. This is one of Ukraine's big problems.

 
Ukraine is now hooked up to the EU power grid.

Which runs on Russian gas. The EU itself will be in a world of hurt if Putin shuts of their gas supply. Everybody is assuming he won't do that because he needs the money. However, with the sanctions it may turn out the money does him no good. I am not sure what will happen here, but being hooked to the EU grid may not be a panacea. There is no excess capacity to begin with.
The Ukraine (and Moldova) have synchronized their grid's frequency and phase to the EU grid. However, as I understand it no power has yet been transferred. The intended cut-over date for this operation was in 2023. It is unclear how much power can actually be shared from the EU due to transmission line limitations.

It is going to be hard and nasty but Ukraine won't be starved out.  And the aid from the West is going to be of immense proportions.

True, and that will help. But supporting 36 million people who are still fighting a war and are being bombed and hit by missiles daily isn't easy. Ukraine won't stave, but it also won't produce much. Not going to be "easy". How long can they endure it?

Russia on the other hand has to deliver foot, ammo & fuel to their troops often over many miles of contested roads.  Every village is a source of insurgency.  And their economy is trashed.  You can buy new equipment from China but all of their existing equipment needs western spare parts.  This is a mess.
I think it also depends on what you are talking about.  The advances around Kiev are totally untenable.  The eastern approaches in particular have long supply lines subject to counter attack.  Suny and Chernihiv are still in their rear.  My view is that the Russians are going to need to retreat to east of Kharkiv.
In the East and the South OTOH the Russians can likely hold some ground.  My guess is they get pushed out of Kherson but hold some eastern territory.

In the East, Russia has short supply lines, Ukraine has longer ones. In the East, Russia fights under the IAD based in Russia. Ukraine is denied the sky in these areas. Indeed, Russia foolishly attempted advances on multiple fronts creating salients that they could neither supply nor defend. Majorly stupid, but they have (belatedly) figured that out. We will see what happens in the East, but I expect that Russia will (unfortunately) do much better there. They will be able to concentrate their forces and will be able to use only the "better" units as assault forces. How well these units hold up will be critical to the advance.

But the truth is that this is a total mess for Putin.  He has accomplished very little, has limited additional reinforcements and not chance of really taking additional territory.  Every day his leverage goes down and he needs to make a deal.
Ukraine has been badly damaged and it is going to get worse.  But they are in a fight for their existence and they believe they are going to win.  The Russians have no idea why they are there.

I agree with every bit of this except the idea Russia has no chance of taking additional territory. I think they have every chance of doing so. Fight under an air umbrella and take 30 to 50 km wide "slices". Short supply lines. Reinforce success (a normal Russian procedure), outflank failure. Ukraine doesn't have the transport or the troops to hold everywhere. They will slowly lose the battle because they can't force Russia to defend and respond to counter-attacks that threaten the flanks or rear. Ukraine is also running out of Soviet era artillery ammunition and it is unclear if/when they can get more. They have stated this is a big problem. Even when they get it, they have to move it from the Polish border to Donbas. Now Ukraine is the one with a very long supply chain.
I expect it is impossible for Russia to take the entire Ukraine that way, but it is certainly possible to secure the Donbas and the majority of Eastern Ukraine that way. If the Russian troops will fight, this can happen. Hopefully, they will have a morale collapse and not do so.

---

There was much more urgency from the Clinton administration back in those days to end the conflict on the battlefield than what I see today in helping Ukraine.   Naturally there are differences between dealing with Milosevic and with Putin.

Indeed there are. Putin can destroy life on the planet, Milosevic not so much. I sympathize greatly with the current administration. If Putin couldn't nuke us, I am pretty sure Biden would bomb the heck out of the Russians. He can, so that is off the table. The administration has to sort of guess what they can do that won't provoke a response we can't live with. How does one do that? I have no idea.
What I do hope the administration is doing involves making plans to deal with the various possible twists and turns of this war. So far the present administration has at best a mixed record on anticipatory planning. We don't want to end up "winging it" if a quick response to an event is required.

[Goose]

Of course Ukrainians have eventually as an option.  They are going to keep fighting until they win and the threat is existential.


Russian has conquered a small part of Ukraine.  Farms will be planted in the spring and food will be grown.

No, it unfortunately is not and mostly will not be planted. That is a big world wide problem causing the UN to forecast serious world-wide shortages. The farmers have picked up weapons and are fighting. They largely can't do both. The wheat they would grow can't be shipped because Russia controls the South coast. This is one of Ukraine's big problems.

 
Ukraine is now hooked up to the EU power grid.

Which runs on Russian gas. The EU itself will be in a world of hurt if Putin shuts of their gas supply. Everybody is assuming he won't do that because he needs the money. However, with the sanctions it may turn out the money does him no good. I am not sure what will happen here, but being hooked to the EU grid may not be a panacea. There is no excess capacity to begin with.
The Ukraine (and Moldova) have synchronized their grid's frequency and phase to the EU grid. However, as I understand it no power has yet been transferred. The intended cut-over date for this operation was in 2023. It is unclear how much power can actually be shared from the EU due to transmission line limitations.

It is going to be hard and nasty but Ukraine won't be starved out.  And the aid from the West is going to be of immense proportions.

True, and that will help. But supporting 36 million people who are still fighting a war and are being bombed and hit by missiles daily isn't easy. Ukraine won't stave, but it also won't produce much. Not going to be "easy". How long can they endure it?

Russia on the other hand has to deliver foot, ammo & fuel to their troops often over many miles of contested roads.  Every village is a source of insurgency.  And their economy is trashed.  You can buy new equipment from China but all of their existing equipment needs western spare parts.  This is a mess.
I think it also depends on what you are talking about.  The advances around Kiev are totally untenable.  The eastern approaches in particular have long supply lines subject to counter attack.  Suny and Chernihiv are still in their rear.  My view is that the Russians are going to need to retreat to east of Kharkiv.
In the East and the South OTOH the Russians can likely hold some ground.  My guess is they get pushed out of Kherson but hold some eastern territory.

In the East, Russia has short supply lines, Ukraine has longer ones. In the East, Russia fights under the IAD based in Russia. Ukraine is denied the sky in these areas. Indeed, Russia foolishly attempted advances on multiple fronts creating salients that they could neither supply nor defend. Majorly stupid, but they have (belatedly) figured that out. We will see what happens in the East, but I expect that Russia will (unfortunately) do much better there. They will be able to concentrate their forces and will be able to use only the "better" units as assault forces. How well these units hold up will be critical to the advance.

But the truth is that this is a total mess for Putin.  He has accomplished very little, has limited additional reinforcements and not chance of really taking additional territory.  Every day his leverage goes down and he needs to make a deal.
Ukraine has been badly damaged and it is going to get worse.  But they are in a fight for their existence and they believe they are going to win.  The Russians have no idea why they are there.

I agree with every bit of this except the idea Russia has no chance of taking additional territory. I think they have every chance of doing so. Fight under an air umbrella and take 30 to 50 km wide "slices". Short supply lines. Reinforce success (a normal Russian procedure), outflank failure. Ukraine doesn't have the transport or the troops to hold everywhere. They will slowly lose the battle because they can't force Russia to defend and respond to counter-attacks that threaten the flanks or rear. Ukraine is also running out of Soviet era artillery ammunition and it is unclear if/when they can get more. They have stated this is a big problem. Even when they get it, they have to move it from the Polish border to Donbas. Now Ukraine is the one with a very long supply chain.
I expect it is impossible for Russia to take the entire Ukraine that way, but it is certainly possible to secure the Donbas and the majority of Eastern Ukraine that way. If the Russian troops will fight, this can happen. Hopefully, they will have a morale collapse and not do so.

---

There was much more urgency from the Clinton administration back in those days to end the conflict on the battlefield than what I see today in helping Ukraine.   Naturally there are differences between dealing with Milosevic and with Putin.

Indeed there are. Putin can destroy life on the planet, Milosevic not so much. I sympathize greatly with the current administration. If Putin couldn't nuke us, I am pretty sure Biden would bomb the heck out of the Russians. He can, so that is off the table. The administration has to sort of guess what they can do that won't provoke a response we can't live with. How does one do that? I have no idea.
What I do hope the administration is doing involves making plans to deal with the various possible twists and turns of this war. So far the present administration has at best a mixed record on anticipatory planning. We don't want to end up "winging it" if a quick response to an event is required.