[Goose]

The Ukrainians view this as a fight for their existence.  Their economy is on a total war footing.  Their people believe that their only option to servitude is to pick up a weapon and fight.  And they fully believe they are going to win.  They can put up with an immense amount of suffering.  OTOH, the Russian army doesn't know why they are fighting.  Morale makes a of immense proportions difference.

Indeed it does. Russia has big problems in that area and they will get bigger as casualties mount and the troops figure out their leaders don't know what they are doing. The success (or not) of the current replenishment and reorganization of the Russian attack will tell us a lot about what the future holds. So far, it seems to be moving very slowly and it is unclear what their new focus will be. We are not seeing a quick effort in the Donbas. The slower Russia actually moves (if they do), the better the Ukraine can respond.

Supply lines across a friendly country are very different than across an enemy territory where all of the inhabitants want you to fail.



I agree that in the east the Russians might take some territory.  But they have shown no ability to take cities of really any size.  Controlling some farm land isn't exactly compelling.



Once again, every day Putin's leverage is going down.  The only question is how aware he is of the situation and when he is willing to face his issues....

Controlling all the farmland that surrounds a city of some size is actually very compelling. That is one of the few things Russia has done correctly. Stay out of urban warfare as much as possible. It is a meat grinder for the attacking force. Russia has already experienced enough of that to know they don't want to go there. Surrounding cities, cutting off their supplies is as old as history. The problem is horrible PR and the amount of time it may take to starve out the defenders. Russia has so far not been in a great hurry to occupy Mariupol. That says to me they understand the issue and are just going to wait them out. If we see a full scale assault against a defended large to medium sized city, I will be surprised.
Ukraine has actually done a pretty good job preventing cities from being encircled (and relieving them when they are encircled). Kiev is the poster child for that, as now apparently is Kherson.
I don't see Putin losing leverage by the day. Both Russia and Ukraine are in situations that are not stable. The status quo is not sustainable for either party. Something has to give. The question is who can sustain the effort the longest or who can change the narrative in their favor. My concern all along has been that Ukraine lacks the combat power to change the narrative in their favor. They have to rely on Russia being unwilling/unable to persist. Russia can, in theory, project enough power Ukraine can't stop them. So far, they have not been able to do that, but the more attempts they get, the more probable it is they will succeed.

[Goose]

The Ukrainians view this as a fight for their existence.  Their economy is on a total war footing.  Their people believe that their only option to servitude is to pick up a weapon and fight.  And they fully believe they are going to win.  They can put up with an immense amount of suffering.  OTOH, the Russian army doesn't know why they are fighting.  Morale makes a of immense proportions difference.

Indeed it does. Russia has big problems in that area and they will get bigger as casualties mount and the troops figure out their leaders don't know what they are doing. The success (or not) of the current replenishment and reorganization of the Russian attack will tell us a lot about what the future holds. So far, it seems to be moving very slowly and it is unclear what their new focus will be. We are not seeing a quick effort in the Donbas. The slower Russia actually moves (if they do), the better the Ukraine can respond.

Supply lines across a friendly country are very different than across an enemy territory where all of the inhabitants want you to fail.



I agree that in the east the Russians might take some territory.  But they have shown no ability to take cities of really any size.  Controlling some farm land isn't exactly compelling.



Once again, every day Putin's leverage is going down.  The only question is how aware he is of the situation and when he is willing to face his issues....

Controlling all the farmland that surrounds a city of some size is actually very compelling. That is one of the few things Russia has done correctly. Stay out of urban warfare as much as possible. It is a meat grinder for the attacking force. Russia has already experienced enough of that to know they don't want to go there. Surrounding cities, cutting off their supplies is as old as history. The problem is horrible PR and the amount of time it may take to starve out the defenders. Russia has so far not been in a great hurry to occupy Mariupol. That says to me they understand the issue and are just going to wait them out. If we see a full scale assault against a defended large to medium sized city, I will be surprised.
Ukraine has actually done a pretty good job preventing cities from being encircled (and relieving them when they are encircled). Kiev is the poster child for that, as now apparently is Kherson.
I don't see Putin losing leverage by the day. Both Russia and Ukraine are in situations that are not stable. The status quo is not sustainable for either party. Something has to give. The question is who can sustain the effort the longest or who can change the narrative in their favor. My concern all along has been that Ukraine lacks the combat power to change the narrative in their favor. They have to rely on Russia being unwilling/unable to persist. Russia can, in theory, project enough power Ukraine can't stop them. So far, they have not been able to do that, but the more attempts they get, the more probable it is they will succeed.