[dabigv13]

Regarding morale, artillery-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1509587852409151492?s=20&t=uI-jttAtFhCsD1VEroBDlw[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1509277843628466180?s=20&t=8uMtMsC0_Q5jyOGPgtaGxQ[/tweet]

And again, Russia is presently, a month into the war, losing territory to the Ukrainians. I don't think anybody would have predicted that at the start, but those are the facts on the ground.

Putin certainly did not start a war that will cripple his military for years in order to secure a land bridge to Crimea or take Mariupol or gain some more gas fields or coal mines. Calling those things war aims really buys into the shifting propaganda from Russia.

The tweet about the UK providing artillery and armored vehicles is of note, since most countries have provided Manpad's and anti take equipment, but for the most part it's been defensive equipment.  If this is confirmed, and actually takes place, it would represent a significant scale up, and all eyes would be on Russia's reaction, if there is one.  Ukraine is at a significant turning point in this war, as they been taking back back lots of territory in the north and Kherson region.  If they are supplied properly, they could look to take back all their territory they've lost, though that's easier said than done.  Russia has yet to use chemical weapons in this war, but I've always worried that if the west begins sending offensive equipment, then Russia would flip that switch, but this is my personal guess and has not been stated by any major source that I know of.

I've stayed out of the Ukraine discussion because (a) others are far more knowledgeable/astute on the subject, and (b) the entire subject makes me uneasy.  I only post here to say (i) I hope Dabig's analyses of the situation are correct, but (ii) I fear Goose's predictions will prove more accurate over time.

But then again, I fear a lot of things when it comes to Putin and his disgusting (and depressing) foray into Ukraine.

The truth is that us armchair generals only have a limited view into what's happening in Ukraine. None of us know what the true losses for Russia or Ukraine are, we have limited idea what their stocks of equipment or ammo are like, particularly for Ukraine, and what information we do have is likely going to be biased towards Ukraine. We also don't know the true levels of western involvement and supply- I imagine if Ukraine did get MIGs or S300s or artillery ammo or xyz from the West, that wouldn't necessarily be public right away; the West would probably see benefit in hiding the provision of more offensive or advanced weapons to reduce risk of escalation.

The simplest things to observe are where Russian and Ukrainian forces are and aren't. Open source info can also give a pretty good idea of Russian equipment losses.

Bottom line we're all mostly talking out of our asses, important to recognize that. I happen to think that Ukraine will ultimately prevail, mostly because they are defending home territory with an immense morale advantage and have already sustained the best Russia could throw at them and have already taken the initiative to go on the offensive after only a month.

[dabigv13]

Regarding morale, artillery-

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1509587852409151492?s=20&t=uI-jttAtFhCsD1VEroBDlw[/tweet]

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1509277843628466180?s=20&t=8uMtMsC0_Q5jyOGPgtaGxQ[/tweet]

And again, Russia is presently, a month into the war, losing territory to the Ukrainians. I don't think anybody would have predicted that at the start, but those are the facts on the ground.

Putin certainly did not start a war that will cripple his military for years in order to secure a land bridge to Crimea or take Mariupol or gain some more gas fields or coal mines. Calling those things war aims really buys into the shifting propaganda from Russia.

The tweet about the UK providing artillery and armored vehicles is of note, since most countries have provided Manpad's and anti take equipment, but for the most part it's been defensive equipment.  If this is confirmed, and actually takes place, it would represent a significant scale up, and all eyes would be on Russia's reaction, if there is one.  Ukraine is at a significant turning point in this war, as they been taking back back lots of territory in the north and Kherson region.  If they are supplied properly, they could look to take back all their territory they've lost, though that's easier said than done.  Russia has yet to use chemical weapons in this war, but I've always worried that if the west begins sending offensive equipment, then Russia would flip that switch, but this is my personal guess and has not been stated by any major source that I know of.

I've stayed out of the Ukraine discussion because (a) others are far more knowledgeable/astute on the subject, and (b) the entire subject makes me uneasy.  I only post here to say (i) I hope Dabig's analyses of the situation are correct, but (ii) I fear Goose's predictions will prove more accurate over time.

But then again, I fear a lot of things when it comes to Putin and his disgusting (and depressing) foray into Ukraine.

The truth is that us armchair generals only have a limited view into what's happening in Ukraine. None of us know what the true losses for Russia or Ukraine are, we have limited idea what their stocks of equipment or ammo are like, particularly for Ukraine, and what information we do have is likely going to be biased towards Ukraine. We also don't know the true levels of western involvement and supply- I imagine if Ukraine did get MIGs or S300s or artillery ammo or xyz from the West, that wouldn't necessarily be public right away; the West would probably see benefit in hiding the provision of more offensive or advanced weapons to reduce risk of escalation.

The simplest things to observe are where Russian and Ukrainian forces are and aren't. Open source info can also give a pretty good idea of Russian equipment losses.

Bottom line we're all mostly talking out of our asses, important to recognize that. I happen to think that Ukraine will ultimately prevail, mostly because they are defending home territory with an immense morale advantage and have already sustained the best Russia could throw at them and have already taken the initiative to go on the offensive after only a month.