(04-02-2022, 05:34 PM)dabigv13 Wrote: Everything I have been reading, even sources relatively bullish on Ukraine's chances, predict that Mariupol will fall within days. Of course, they have been saying this for a couple weeks. IMHO, since the defenders know that surrender means death, I do not think it will be taken and secured for some time.I don't know the details, but I am pretty sure Russia doesn't want to take Mariupol street by street. The casualties would be just too high. The large number of civilians still present is an issue but not a big one for Russia. Russia will just keep pounding. They assume eventually Mariupol will surrender. I wouldn't bet on that myself.
My hope would be that Ukraine could cut the coast road (M14) South of Mariupol and possibly panic the Russians between that point and Mariupol. That might end the siege. Problem is, you don't want to commit a force that itself could be surrounded. You have to be sure you can keep the corridor open. That said, Russia has a pretty thin hold along that part of the coast. For some reason they never widened it, probably due to resistance, as being as shallow as they are seems inadvisable to me.
Kherson the city is one thing. Ukraine can probably clear at least most of it. However, they are committed to clearing the entire Oblast. They really, really need to do that for the future of Ukraine. They need to securely control both banks of the river and recover the transportation hubs (rail and road) in the Oblast. Now is probably not the time to do that IMHO, as that is going to be a real heavy lift. Secure Donbas first and/or cut the coast road. Right now, as long as Mariupol (or another nearby area) is Ukrainian, Russia can't use that road. Make sure it stays that way. This makes Russia's supply problem in Kherson Oblast much worse. Note that there is no "coastal railroad". The rail link is well inland and not in Russian control ATM.