[Goose]

The WSJ cites a former Ukrainian Navy captain saying the strike was with a Tochka-U SRBM, which Wikipedia says has a CEP (circular error probable) of 70M, or 50% likelihood of striking within 70M of the input target, so pretty fortunate hit unless Ukraine launched a bunch. Hopefully we will get a fuller story in the future. Tochka-U had been rumored from the beginning as the cause.

There has to be plenty of Harpoon or Exocet missiles lying around that NATO could get to Ukraine. Those would get Russia off their coastline for sure, though not far enough that Russian ships couldn't attack with their Kalibr missiles, which have a much farther range.

The Exocet has not been used as a land-based system AFAIK. The Harpoon has, but only in very limited numbers a long while ago. The Harpoon is not already in Ukrainian inventory and would require significant training. It is actually unclear how well the land based one would work, as AFAIK only Denmark ever had any and have none now. As I have said before, IMHO if NATO is going to supply anything the SS-N-2 Styx is a good choice. It would be better to get something newer, but it needs to be something that doesn't require massive retraining.

Shooting a Tochka-U at an anchored ship of that size is a fools errand. There are better uses of the limited number of these missiles the Ukrainians have, and I am sure they know that. It may be they figured hitting the pier was also a probable mission kill and they went for it, but I kind of doubt it. Unless they were feeling real lucky, it was probably something else. Sabotage or somebody sneaking in close with a Javelin seems possible, The nearby oil tank burning seems to have ignited secondary explosions on the ship. This is consistent with such an explanation. I would expect a Tochka-U hitting an Alligator class ship squarely would blow it in half. It has a big warhead.

[Goose]

The WSJ cites a former Ukrainian Navy captain saying the strike was with a Tochka-U SRBM, which Wikipedia says has a CEP (circular error probable) of 70M, or 50% likelihood of striking within 70M of the input target, so pretty fortunate hit unless Ukraine launched a bunch. Hopefully we will get a fuller story in the future. Tochka-U had been rumored from the beginning as the cause.

There has to be plenty of Harpoon or Exocet missiles lying around that NATO could get to Ukraine. Those would get Russia off their coastline for sure, though not far enough that Russian ships couldn't attack with their Kalibr missiles, which have a much farther range.

The Exocet has not been used as a land-based system AFAIK. The Harpoon has, but only in very limited numbers a long while ago. The Harpoon is not already in Ukrainian inventory and would require significant training. It is actually unclear how well the land based one would work, as AFAIK only Denmark ever had any and have none now. As I have said before, IMHO if NATO is going to supply anything the SS-N-2 Styx is a good choice. It would be better to get something newer, but it needs to be something that doesn't require massive retraining.

Shooting a Tochka-U at an anchored ship of that size is a fools errand. There are better uses of the limited number of these missiles the Ukrainians have, and I am sure they know that. It may be they figured hitting the pier was also a probable mission kill and they went for it, but I kind of doubt it. Unless they were feeling real lucky, it was probably something else. Sabotage or somebody sneaking in close with a Javelin seems possible, The nearby oil tank burning seems to have ignited secondary explosions on the ship. This is consistent with such an explanation. I would expect a Tochka-U hitting an Alligator class ship squarely would blow it in half. It has a big warhead.