[BostonCard]

As long as article 5 remains credible, Russia will not attack a NATO member.  However, as soon as there is doubt as to whether nato will aid, say, Estonia were it to be attacked by Russia, that dramatically increases the probability it will happen.

Putin thought that the West would react as it had when he invaded Crimea.  The current Ukrainian war was a major wake-up moment for the alliance, and has majorly backfired on Putin, almost no matter what happens in Ukraine.  He has now gotten NATO allies to spend money on their militaries, is likely leading Finland and Sweden to join NATO, and NATO to station more troops further East than you would have seen in the alternative universe where Putin doesn’t invade.

BC

[BostonCard]

As long as article 5 remains credible, Russia will not attack a NATO member.  However, as soon as there is doubt as to whether nato will aid, say, Estonia were it to be attacked by Russia, that dramatically increases the probability it will happen.

Putin thought that the West would react as it had when he invaded Crimea.  The current Ukrainian war was a major wake-up moment for the alliance, and has majorly backfired on Putin, almost no matter what happens in Ukraine.  He has now gotten NATO allies to spend money on their militaries, is likely leading Finland and Sweden to join NATO, and NATO to station more troops further East than you would have seen in the alternative universe where Putin doesn’t invade.

BC