[Leftcoast]

"I have wondered whether Apple and other US based tech companies might be quietly looking at moving some manufacturing and chip production to safer ground, if only to hedge against future political instability vis a vis China. Singapore? Malaysia?"

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I can speak to a piece of this.  Most US electronics companies such as the one where I work follow an outsourced model.  They no longer have significant investments in very expensive manufacturing technology but instead leverage companies such as Jabil/HonHai/Celestica/Inventec to make their products following their specific design "recipes".  (Think Bills of Material/Approved Vendors List/Detailed Process Instructions).  These ODMs aren't only in China, most have significant sites outside of China in places such as Malyasia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and recently India.  Those sites have been DELUGED with move requests over the last 4 years as companies flee tariffs raised on Chinese imports.  

So ... yes, the move away from a China-only strategy has started and will gain steam as political tensions heat up and more manufacturing capacity comes on line.

Keep your expectations tempered however.  First, China itself is a hug.e market and the world's top companies will want to maintain the access that comes with an investment there.  Secondly, many component manufacturers (2nd/3rd level suppliers) remain in China and there is a heck of a lot of manufacturing in China dwarfing the new capacity coming on line. Finally, there were reasons China made sense - accessible workforce, management, friendly business climates, and access to raw material.  Many alternate sites lack some of these. Many have their own instabilities to weight.

I'll leave with this, are we really against an interconnected world?  I'm inclined to believe that countries are far less willing to risk war with their biggest trading partners and globalization has a bias for peace. Using commerce to bind potential belligerents is not an altogether bad idea.  Until lately I've been far more worried about North Korea than China. I actually still am but my China optimism is more nuance since Xi Jinping's nationalistic/authoritarian tendencies became more obvious. Still think of how far China has come compared to late 70s.

[Leftcoast]

"I have wondered whether Apple and other US based tech companies might be quietly looking at moving some manufacturing and chip production to safer ground, if only to hedge against future political instability vis a vis China. Singapore? Malaysia?"

======================================================

I can speak to a piece of this.  Most US electronics companies such as the one where I work follow an outsourced model.  They no longer have significant investments in very expensive manufacturing technology but instead leverage companies such as Jabil/HonHai/Celestica/Inventec to make their products following their specific design "recipes".  (Think Bills of Material/Approved Vendors List/Detailed Process Instructions).  These ODMs aren't only in China, most have significant sites outside of China in places such as Malyasia, Indonesia, Vietnam, and recently India.  Those sites have been DELUGED with move requests over the last 4 years as companies flee tariffs raised on Chinese imports.  

So ... yes, the move away from a China-only strategy has started and will gain steam as political tensions heat up and more manufacturing capacity comes on line.

Keep your expectations tempered however.  First, China itself is a hug.e market and the world's top companies will want to maintain the access that comes with an investment there.  Secondly, many component manufacturers (2nd/3rd level suppliers) remain in China and there is a heck of a lot of manufacturing in China dwarfing the new capacity coming on line. Finally, there were reasons China made sense - accessible workforce, management, friendly business climates, and access to raw material.  Many alternate sites lack some of these. Many have their own instabilities to weight.

I'll leave with this, are we really against an interconnected world?  I'm inclined to believe that countries are far less willing to risk war with their biggest trading partners and globalization has a bias for peace. Using commerce to bind potential belligerents is not an altogether bad idea.  Until lately I've been far more worried about North Korea than China. I actually still am but my China optimism is more nuance since Xi Jinping's nationalistic/authoritarian tendencies became more obvious. Still think of how far China has come compared to late 70s.