04-08-2022, 05:51 PM
“I’ll leave with this, are we really against an interconnected world? I'm inclined to believe that countries are far less willing to risk war with their biggest trading partners and globalization has a bias for peace. Using commerce to bind potential belligerents is not an altogether bad idea. Until lately I've been far more worried about North Korea than China. I actually still am but my China optimism is more nuance since Xi Jinping's nationalistic/authoritarian tendencies became more obvious. Still think of how far China has come compared to late 70s.”
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LC…Your point is a good one. I am not against an interconnected world, including with countries that arent our friends. I just dont want to be dependent on them for crucial products. As with most things in life, its grey and its hard to know where to draw the line. I have no problem getting 20% of an important product from China, just not 80%.
As you say, I think countries prefer not to attack their customers. But Europes ability to react to Russia in Ukraine is hampered by their dependence on Russian energy. I prefer we have more flexibility if China attacks Taiwan or elsewhere. And that China know we have the flexibility.
In recent decades I think our sourcing decisions have been driven almost entirely by economics. I think Ukraine has taught us that we need to factor in geo-politics also. I wish it werent so.
Fwiw, I was a big fan of trade with China. I was one of the leads in opening our firm office there 15 years ago. I have been so disappointed by the direction Xi has taken China. I was wrong in how I thought they would evolve.
Maybe more important than the broken agreement with Hong Kong, the building of artificial islands in international water, the treatment of the Uighurs etc, is the increased crackdown on dissent and the use of their media to foment dislike for the US among the population. If 75% of the Russian population can believe they are fighting Nazis, who knows what the Chinese might be convinced of in the future. That said, thats one of the reasons to stay interconnected….the more we interact with each other the harder it is to wrongly stereotype.
[/quote]
LC…Your point is a good one. I am not against an interconnected world, including with countries that arent our friends. I just dont want to be dependent on them for crucial products. As with most things in life, its grey and its hard to know where to draw the line. I have no problem getting 20% of an important product from China, just not 80%.
As you say, I think countries prefer not to attack their customers. But Europes ability to react to Russia in Ukraine is hampered by their dependence on Russian energy. I prefer we have more flexibility if China attacks Taiwan or elsewhere. And that China know we have the flexibility.
In recent decades I think our sourcing decisions have been driven almost entirely by economics. I think Ukraine has taught us that we need to factor in geo-politics also. I wish it werent so.
Fwiw, I was a big fan of trade with China. I was one of the leads in opening our firm office there 15 years ago. I have been so disappointed by the direction Xi has taken China. I was wrong in how I thought they would evolve.
Maybe more important than the broken agreement with Hong Kong, the building of artificial islands in international water, the treatment of the Uighurs etc, is the increased crackdown on dissent and the use of their media to foment dislike for the US among the population. If 75% of the Russian population can believe they are fighting Nazis, who knows what the Chinese might be convinced of in the future. That said, thats one of the reasons to stay interconnected….the more we interact with each other the harder it is to wrongly stereotype.