[Goose]

I saw a calculation that the Moskva represented a quarter of the Russian tonnage in the Black Sea.  So,wow.

I appreciate the discussion here.  I know we are all speculating, but the theories seem at least plausible. The TB2 might have functioned both for distraction and targeting purposes.  Maybe the Russian sailors were concerned about the TB2 precisely because it could have been used to target the ship?  Still, as seems a theme in this war, the Ukrainians have hit on the right combination of ingenuity and chutzpah, combined with Russian incompetence and perhaps a bit of luck to do what few thought possible.  Slava Ukraini!

A drone has been used in Yemen to target a warship, so it isn't unheard of. However, it also hasn't yet become common. That said, the Moskva should have immediately shot it down. They are in a war zone. If it flies, it dies. Failure to do so indicates some level of incompetence.

I imagine that the captain, XO, and virtually all the sailors are dead, despite Russian assertions that they were rescued.  Remember the Kursk? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_submarine_disaster

The Kursk was sunk when one of it's own torpedoes exploded. It happens. See SSN-589.  Arguable Russian rocket propelled torpedoes are inherently more dangerous, but for sure a submerged submarine is unlikely to survive such an event. Totally different case.

Russian Naval safety and maintenance  is so bad that Russia’s initial story, that weapons onboard the Moskva spontaneously exploded, was actually plausible.  Given that the Neptune is only rated for ships at 5,000 tons or less, and the Moskva is 19,000 tons, either Ukrainians were sandbagging, really lucky, or Russian naval carelessness made the Moskva more vulnerable than it should have been.

BC

Russian surface ships are designed to be "one hit wonders". The Moskva had over twice the hitting power of an equivalent US ship. Look at the rows of missile boxes lining the forward 2/3 of the ship. This doesn't include the two VLS that you can't see embedded in the superstructure. The Moskva was designed to shoot down the aircraft sent by a CV to sink her, fight her way close enough, and overwhelm the CV with anti-ship missiles. There would be enough anti-ship missiles that even if some were shot down, it wouldn't matter. The Moskva was not expected to survive the experience. With all that ordinance packed into the ship, any hit is likely to hit something that will explode. That explosion will recursively start other explosions. In other words, Russian ships are floating bombs. Damage control is rudimentary because it is largely futile. Speculating, she may have been saved because she did not have a full load of anti-ship missiles. No targets for them, why carry them? Less things to go boom. The US DoD appears to be saying she experienced a "magazine explosion". No ship survives that unless the magazine wasn't anywhere near full.

That said, she didn't sink, at least not yet. It appears the crew abandoned ship pretty early on, so maybe not many died. As of now, the claim is that they will tow her to Sevastopol. Towing a damaged warship often fails for various reasons, including enemy action. We don't know her condition, so we can't speculate if they will succeed. It is probable she is out of the fight for the duration in any case. Extensive damage like she undoubtedly has takes time to fix, and if I am the Russians I am not sure I would tie up a dry dock for months to do it. Repairs may require equipment and materials that are not present in Crimea. The Russians may need that dry dock later for other things of more immediate value.

As an update:
"He said the damaged Russian warship was making its way across the Black Sea, although a senior defence official later said it was unclear whether it was moving under its own power or being towed. Russian state media said the 510-strong crew had been evacuated and the ship was being towed."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/a...-black-sea

[Goose]

I saw a calculation that the Moskva represented a quarter of the Russian tonnage in the Black Sea.  So,wow.

I appreciate the discussion here.  I know we are all speculating, but the theories seem at least plausible. The TB2 might have functioned both for distraction and targeting purposes.  Maybe the Russian sailors were concerned about the TB2 precisely because it could have been used to target the ship?  Still, as seems a theme in this war, the Ukrainians have hit on the right combination of ingenuity and chutzpah, combined with Russian incompetence and perhaps a bit of luck to do what few thought possible.  Slava Ukraini!

A drone has been used in Yemen to target a warship, so it isn't unheard of. However, it also hasn't yet become common. That said, the Moskva should have immediately shot it down. They are in a war zone. If it flies, it dies. Failure to do so indicates some level of incompetence.

I imagine that the captain, XO, and virtually all the sailors are dead, despite Russian assertions that they were rescued.  Remember the Kursk? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_submarine_disaster

The Kursk was sunk when one of it's own torpedoes exploded. It happens. See SSN-589.  Arguable Russian rocket propelled torpedoes are inherently more dangerous, but for sure a submerged submarine is unlikely to survive such an event. Totally different case.

Russian Naval safety and maintenance  is so bad that Russia’s initial story, that weapons onboard the Moskva spontaneously exploded, was actually plausible.  Given that the Neptune is only rated for ships at 5,000 tons or less, and the Moskva is 19,000 tons, either Ukrainians were sandbagging, really lucky, or Russian naval carelessness made the Moskva more vulnerable than it should have been.

BC

Russian surface ships are designed to be "one hit wonders". The Moskva had over twice the hitting power of an equivalent US ship. Look at the rows of missile boxes lining the forward 2/3 of the ship. This doesn't include the two VLS that you can't see embedded in the superstructure. The Moskva was designed to shoot down the aircraft sent by a CV to sink her, fight her way close enough, and overwhelm the CV with anti-ship missiles. There would be enough anti-ship missiles that even if some were shot down, it wouldn't matter. The Moskva was not expected to survive the experience. With all that ordinance packed into the ship, any hit is likely to hit something that will explode. That explosion will recursively start other explosions. In other words, Russian ships are floating bombs. Damage control is rudimentary because it is largely futile. Speculating, she may have been saved because she did not have a full load of anti-ship missiles. No targets for them, why carry them? Less things to go boom. The US DoD appears to be saying she experienced a "magazine explosion". No ship survives that unless the magazine wasn't anywhere near full.

That said, she didn't sink, at least not yet. It appears the crew abandoned ship pretty early on, so maybe not many died. As of now, the claim is that they will tow her to Sevastopol. Towing a damaged warship often fails for various reasons, including enemy action. We don't know her condition, so we can't speculate if they will succeed. It is probable she is out of the fight for the duration in any case. Extensive damage like she undoubtedly has takes time to fix, and if I am the Russians I am not sure I would tie up a dry dock for months to do it. Repairs may require equipment and materials that are not present in Crimea. The Russians may need that dry dock later for other things of more immediate value.

As an update:
"He said the damaged Russian warship was making its way across the Black Sea, although a senior defence official later said it was unclear whether it was moving under its own power or being towed. Russian state media said the 510-strong crew had been evacuated and the ship was being towed."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/a...-black-sea