[Genuine Realist]

We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings.
<snip>
There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.
<snip>
And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”.

I certainly agree we don't understand the Russian public. However, I think this misunderstanding includes the idea they are particularly patriotic. The Russians certainly have an inferiority complex that goes back a long way. It is important to them that they be considered strong and be respected. This is coupled with a well-founded suspicion that they are not so strong and maybe not deserving of great respect. A leader that will deliver strength and respect is what they seek. It doesn't matter what else is involved.

Most Russians are just trying to survive in the best way possible. They regard it as a given that they don't control anything and are at the mercy of many malign forces, be it the local stores, the local Mafia, or the central government. We here in the USA, and in Europe (to a lesser or greater extent) demand and expect "justice". When we don't get it, either for ourselves or others, we at least try to do something about it and in general expect to at least accomplish something (not that we always do). The Russian people don't expect justice and they don't expect anybody to care that they aren't getting it. If they have to do something that is unfair to their neighbor to get ahead, so what? It is "normal".

Russians are probably more xenophobic than they are patriotic IMHO. They knew Stalin was a bastard, but he could tell them that the Germans were bastards AND they weren't Russians. Of course, neither was Stalin, but that is just the government, and everybody knows they lie. It is war. Do what you have to in order to survive. Lots of us won't, but that is normal. The Ukrainians welcomed the Germans because they were not Russians. Unfortunately, they were bastards, but it took a while to find that out.

I said Nationalistic.  Not patriotic.  They are not the same thing.

I'm grateful for all the military information.

My own concerns are strategic. I don't see an endgame here. Putin backing off seems impossible. So does a Ukrainean surrender. The conflict descending into a war of attrition in the manner of Afghanistan and Vietnam is out of the question.

So how does this end? My best guess is that Putin is hoping that the energy squeeze caused by the boycott of Russian oil results in a reversal of Western support for the Ukraine. I'm a believer in climate change, but the policies of those countries that determined to end dependence on fossil fuels without providing for alternative production has always struck me as fanciful. France, which has aggressively adopted nuclearization, can sanction Russian oil with relative impunity. Germany, which is both anti-carbon and anti-nuclear (fantasy) is quite vulnerable. The US is not that vulnerable, but Biden is already paying a political price. 

That said, I don't believe that the energy pressure is going to be quite as effective as Putin may believe. 

Which leads me back to the first question - how does this end?

[Genuine Realist]

We think it’s horrifying. But do the Russians?  History tells us how Russia fights wars. In the Great Patriotic War Russia defeated Germany for several reasons. Some of it involving German miscalculation and hubris, but most of it in the incredible resolve of the Russian people, fueled by an Ultra- Nationalism, and also  the knowledge that if they didn’t fight, they’d be exiled or executed.

I think people in the West, and particularly most people in the US have little understanding of how different it is to live  in a Country with no democratic history and no democratic leanings.
<snip>
There is just Putin and his sycophants couple with an Ultra- Nationalist populace ready to fight and die for Mother Russia.
<snip>
And those that hope for a Russian uprising fail, I think, to understand the Russian mindset - molded by its history. Backed against the wall, the people will support Putin. Because it’s for “ Mother Russia”.

I certainly agree we don't understand the Russian public. However, I think this misunderstanding includes the idea they are particularly patriotic. The Russians certainly have an inferiority complex that goes back a long way. It is important to them that they be considered strong and be respected. This is coupled with a well-founded suspicion that they are not so strong and maybe not deserving of great respect. A leader that will deliver strength and respect is what they seek. It doesn't matter what else is involved.

Most Russians are just trying to survive in the best way possible. They regard it as a given that they don't control anything and are at the mercy of many malign forces, be it the local stores, the local Mafia, or the central government. We here in the USA, and in Europe (to a lesser or greater extent) demand and expect "justice". When we don't get it, either for ourselves or others, we at least try to do something about it and in general expect to at least accomplish something (not that we always do). The Russian people don't expect justice and they don't expect anybody to care that they aren't getting it. If they have to do something that is unfair to their neighbor to get ahead, so what? It is "normal".

Russians are probably more xenophobic than they are patriotic IMHO. They knew Stalin was a bastard, but he could tell them that the Germans were bastards AND they weren't Russians. Of course, neither was Stalin, but that is just the government, and everybody knows they lie. It is war. Do what you have to in order to survive. Lots of us won't, but that is normal. The Ukrainians welcomed the Germans because they were not Russians. Unfortunately, they were bastards, but it took a while to find that out.

I said Nationalistic.  Not patriotic.  They are not the same thing.

I'm grateful for all the military information.

My own concerns are strategic. I don't see an endgame here. Putin backing off seems impossible. So does a Ukrainean surrender. The conflict descending into a war of attrition in the manner of Afghanistan and Vietnam is out of the question.

So how does this end? My best guess is that Putin is hoping that the energy squeeze caused by the boycott of Russian oil results in a reversal of Western support for the Ukraine. I'm a believer in climate change, but the policies of those countries that determined to end dependence on fossil fuels without providing for alternative production has always struck me as fanciful. France, which has aggressively adopted nuclearization, can sanction Russian oil with relative impunity. Germany, which is both anti-carbon and anti-nuclear (fantasy) is quite vulnerable. The US is not that vulnerable, but Biden is already paying a political price. 

That said, I don't believe that the energy pressure is going to be quite as effective as Putin may believe. 

Which leads me back to the first question - how does this end?