[Goose]

Whether it’s ethnicism or nationalism the point remains the same.  The Russian people will fight for Mother Russia.  Putin knows  that.  And will play on it.  Hoping there is some kind of uprising or coup is a pipe dream.  So, figuring a way out of this before it escapes and tens of thousands becomes tens of millions is the very difficult matter facing the West.

The challenge to the West is to make the sentiment among the Russian people one of "Why are we fighting the Ukrainians, when so many of them are our relatives?" and not one of "We are fighting for Mother Russia." And, given the iron grip Putin has over Russia, that sentiment needs to become an overwhelming one, not just a predominant one. A stalemate with increasing numbers of Russian soldiers dying on Ukrainian soil might move popular sentiment in the first direction. But an action such as bombing something on Russian soil -- even if a military facility -- and causing Russian casualties would swing Russian sentiment in the second direction. That is why the West has a tough balancing act.

Perhaps the issue here is the definition of "Mother Russia". It is NOT the current government, or even Putin, it is rather the general image and welfare of the Russian people. Yes, this is a fuzzy concept, even among Russians. Putin has them convinced his military actions improve their general welfare and prestige. He also has a better track record than any of his predecessors, at least for Russians. There is also a lot of "If not Putin, who?" in play. Loyalty is not a big thing in Russia. They will drop Putin like a hot potato if they become convinced he is leading them back to the mid-90s. IMHO if the EU, particularly Germany, can be persuaded to stop all Russian energy imports, Putin has less than 45 days to end this mess, maybe much less. The sanctions are already creating shortages, but things are kind of still kind of OK and everybody still believes it will end soon with Ukraine defeated. If the government can't pay it's pensioners and food is getting hard to find, things will change fast, with Putin replaced by some kind of interim government.

Putin can't just declare victory and quit. Too many Russians have died and the people will figure it out. I also can't see how the Europeans can continue buying Russian gas and oil, even after this ends. Switching to renewable energy aside, they now must realize they can't allow themselves to be in a sole-source situation, particularly if that source isn't "stable". This is going to crater Russia's economy, sooner or later (I hope sooner). The only way they buy even 20% of their needs from Russia is if Putin is gone. The Russians aren't stupid. They will figure it out.

That is the good news and the bad news. The West really has no end game except removing Putin. Putin's best bet is that either Ukraine surrenders unconditionally or the war continues. If Putin tries to take the land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas and seek peace, IMHO Ukraine will not go along unless a very long, bloody war is fought. As long as the wars isn't over, Putin can hope the West will break up from internal strife, Le Pen will win and take France out of NATO, or something like that. Otherwise, he is doomed IMHO.

[Goose]

Whether it’s ethnicism or nationalism the point remains the same.  The Russian people will fight for Mother Russia.  Putin knows  that.  And will play on it.  Hoping there is some kind of uprising or coup is a pipe dream.  So, figuring a way out of this before it escapes and tens of thousands becomes tens of millions is the very difficult matter facing the West.

The challenge to the West is to make the sentiment among the Russian people one of "Why are we fighting the Ukrainians, when so many of them are our relatives?" and not one of "We are fighting for Mother Russia." And, given the iron grip Putin has over Russia, that sentiment needs to become an overwhelming one, not just a predominant one. A stalemate with increasing numbers of Russian soldiers dying on Ukrainian soil might move popular sentiment in the first direction. But an action such as bombing something on Russian soil -- even if a military facility -- and causing Russian casualties would swing Russian sentiment in the second direction. That is why the West has a tough balancing act.

Perhaps the issue here is the definition of "Mother Russia". It is NOT the current government, or even Putin, it is rather the general image and welfare of the Russian people. Yes, this is a fuzzy concept, even among Russians. Putin has them convinced his military actions improve their general welfare and prestige. He also has a better track record than any of his predecessors, at least for Russians. There is also a lot of "If not Putin, who?" in play. Loyalty is not a big thing in Russia. They will drop Putin like a hot potato if they become convinced he is leading them back to the mid-90s. IMHO if the EU, particularly Germany, can be persuaded to stop all Russian energy imports, Putin has less than 45 days to end this mess, maybe much less. The sanctions are already creating shortages, but things are kind of still kind of OK and everybody still believes it will end soon with Ukraine defeated. If the government can't pay it's pensioners and food is getting hard to find, things will change fast, with Putin replaced by some kind of interim government.

Putin can't just declare victory and quit. Too many Russians have died and the people will figure it out. I also can't see how the Europeans can continue buying Russian gas and oil, even after this ends. Switching to renewable energy aside, they now must realize they can't allow themselves to be in a sole-source situation, particularly if that source isn't "stable". This is going to crater Russia's economy, sooner or later (I hope sooner). The only way they buy even 20% of their needs from Russia is if Putin is gone. The Russians aren't stupid. They will figure it out.

That is the good news and the bad news. The West really has no end game except removing Putin. Putin's best bet is that either Ukraine surrenders unconditionally or the war continues. If Putin tries to take the land bridge to Crimea, the Donbas and seek peace, IMHO Ukraine will not go along unless a very long, bloody war is fought. As long as the wars isn't over, Putin can hope the West will break up from internal strife, Le Pen will win and take France out of NATO, or something like that. Otherwise, he is doomed IMHO.