[Goose]

Why is a coup a pipe dream?  Putin's effect on the military is terrible. Why wouldn't the military want to take him out before too many more of them get killed?

The "company grade" military, captains and below, don't have the power to organize anything. They have even less authority and responsibility than NATO officers of the same grade. The field grade officers have a typically Russian conundrum. They are better off than the average Russian. They have a steady job and will get paid regularly. Normally, what they do is pretty safe. Now, Putin has got them into a war. That makes their job a bit of a gamble. They have to actually lead an Army that isn't particularly well organized. Their own troops might kill them. The Ukrainians will certainly kill them if they can. The good news is that casualties among the higher ups create promotional opportunities.

OTOH, if they even talk to a fellow officer about disobeying orders or a coup, they probably will get turned in to the FSB. If that doesn't happen because they found a kindred spirit, now all they have to do is overthrow the government. For just about any officer, that latter course of action has a much lower expected value than taking his chances in a war. Besides, as a Russian he knows his own destiny is not in his control anyway.

The Soviet Union and it's successor in Russia has always been fully aware that the military has the power to overthrow the State if it is concentrated in competent, strong hands. The political leadership has always emphasized the subordinate position of the military and nowhere in the world is "civilian" control of the military taken more seriously than in Russia. Stalin enforced this by simply killing any officers who appeared smart enough to overthrow him. Top generals are always pitted against each other in a zero sum game to ensure nobody gets any ideas. This often leads to less than ideal military leadership, but the political leadership accepts this as a necessary evil. This policy explains to a large extent why Putin did not appoint a "supreme commander" of the Ukraine invasion until it became absolutely clear one was required. The military officers become used to "playing the game", just like officers in NATO do. It is a different game in Russia, to be sure, but a military takeover is very improbable.

This is not to say Putin cannot be ousted. He certainly can, but if he is it will be because the people in general are convinced he is bankrupting the country and has to go. It will be a political coup, not a military one, when and if it happens. The military may/will be involved, but only in deciding whose orders to follow (or just sit there) as they have done in the last two "irregular" changes of Russian government.

[Goose]

Why is a coup a pipe dream?  Putin's effect on the military is terrible. Why wouldn't the military want to take him out before too many more of them get killed?

The "company grade" military, captains and below, don't have the power to organize anything. They have even less authority and responsibility than NATO officers of the same grade. The field grade officers have a typically Russian conundrum. They are better off than the average Russian. They have a steady job and will get paid regularly. Normally, what they do is pretty safe. Now, Putin has got them into a war. That makes their job a bit of a gamble. They have to actually lead an Army that isn't particularly well organized. Their own troops might kill them. The Ukrainians will certainly kill them if they can. The good news is that casualties among the higher ups create promotional opportunities.

OTOH, if they even talk to a fellow officer about disobeying orders or a coup, they probably will get turned in to the FSB. If that doesn't happen because they found a kindred spirit, now all they have to do is overthrow the government. For just about any officer, that latter course of action has a much lower expected value than taking his chances in a war. Besides, as a Russian he knows his own destiny is not in his control anyway.

The Soviet Union and it's successor in Russia has always been fully aware that the military has the power to overthrow the State if it is concentrated in competent, strong hands. The political leadership has always emphasized the subordinate position of the military and nowhere in the world is "civilian" control of the military taken more seriously than in Russia. Stalin enforced this by simply killing any officers who appeared smart enough to overthrow him. Top generals are always pitted against each other in a zero sum game to ensure nobody gets any ideas. This often leads to less than ideal military leadership, but the political leadership accepts this as a necessary evil. This policy explains to a large extent why Putin did not appoint a "supreme commander" of the Ukraine invasion until it became absolutely clear one was required. The military officers become used to "playing the game", just like officers in NATO do. It is a different game in Russia, to be sure, but a military takeover is very improbable.

This is not to say Putin cannot be ousted. He certainly can, but if he is it will be because the people in general are convinced he is bankrupting the country and has to go. It will be a political coup, not a military one, when and if it happens. The military may/will be involved, but only in deciding whose orders to follow (or just sit there) as they have done in the last two "irregular" changes of Russian government.