[dabigv13]

Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them.

Source? And even if accurate, not exactly the ratio you want to be going with against a prepared defense. Especially if you don't have significant reserve forces.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas.

It's been almost 2 months and we have mostly seen Russian mechanized forces on roads. I think Russia needs to prove they can perform large scale combined arms maneuvers before we assume they can.

Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

How many more guided munitions does Russia have? They probably aren't making many/any more of them. Meanwhile the whole of the Western world is escalating their delivery of arms to Ukraine. I will take their manufacturing capacity over Russia's. Again, not WW2, the Russian Army is not the Wehrmacht. We all like reading about it. This isn't then.

War is conditional, a lot can change. But from what we've seen in THIS war so far suggests to me that Russia will run out of arms/men/ and most importantly morale before Ukraine does. 

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

I grew up in a Navy family, like reading about military history, did a couple years in Sea Cadets. I'm very much an interested amateur and I don't wish to present myself as an expert at all. But I can argue the facts that we've seen through the fog of war. I don't think you have to have written a thesis on Clausewitz or teach at the War College to post on the Cardboard Ukraine thread.


.....
Damaged Moskva

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BormanIke/status/1515816220393713665?s=20&t=CA5JlaVg9ZN0uFdLfehxDw[/tweet]

[dabigv13]

Right now, Russia is positioning 70K troops in the Donbas. Ukraine has about 30 to 35K troops to oppose them.

Source? And even if accurate, not exactly the ratio you want to be going with against a prepared defense. Especially if you don't have significant reserve forces.

This battle will be fought in rolling plains, not a forest or built up areas.

It's been almost 2 months and we have mostly seen Russian mechanized forces on roads. I think Russia needs to prove they can perform large scale combined arms maneuvers before we assume they can.

Russia can use bombs and cruise missiles on targets that are in the open field. Ukraine cannot. This movie has been shot before with Germans as the attacking force. Does not end well for the defenders.

How many more guided munitions does Russia have? They probably aren't making many/any more of them. Meanwhile the whole of the Western world is escalating their delivery of arms to Ukraine. I will take their manufacturing capacity over Russia's. Again, not WW2, the Russian Army is not the Wehrmacht. We all like reading about it. This isn't then.

War is conditional, a lot can change. But from what we've seen in THIS war so far suggests to me that Russia will run out of arms/men/ and most importantly morale before Ukraine does. 

[tease] So, you classify yourself as not one of the "saavy experts"[/tease]

I grew up in a Navy family, like reading about military history, did a couple years in Sea Cadets. I'm very much an interested amateur and I don't wish to present myself as an expert at all. But I can argue the facts that we've seen through the fog of war. I don't think you have to have written a thesis on Clausewitz or teach at the War College to post on the Cardboard Ukraine thread.


.....
Damaged Moskva

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/BormanIke/status/1515816220393713665?s=20&t=CA5JlaVg9ZN0uFdLfehxDw[/tweet]