04-17-2022, 04:13 PM
In my view, Putin invaded Ukraine primarily to bolster his domestic popularity. It has worked for him before and frankly in terms of popularity it has worked this time. The Russian public is strongly supportive of both this war and Putin. I know that is hard to believe but it is clearly true.
So Putin is going to try to end this war once it no longer works for him domestically. The idea that Putin can't withstand a defeat is totally wrong. He has convinced the Russian people that this invasion is justified. He can absolutely convince them that a loss is really a successful demilitarization of Ukraine.
Zelensky OTOH has the public support to fight for years. Ukrainians rightly believe that they were attacked for no reason. IMO, the West will be happy to continue to send both arms and humanitarian aid. Financing a proxy war that saps Russia is a dream for the West.
Militarily, Russia knows it cannot conquer Ukraine. The question is what they are going to try to take and hold. In the South, I expect them to retreat from Kherson at some point and hold the line east of the Dnipro river. I can them see them trying to hold a line from Vasylivka east to Donestsk which they held prewar.
In the North, Russia has retreated back behind the Donets river just to the east of Kharkiv. The issue is that they have made no progress in the Luhansk area which has been defended by the UKR army since 2014. To create a line here the Russians need to attack south from Izytum. That is the place to watch. If the Russians can't do this I just don't see a logical line for them to hold other than retreating back to Russia.
Normally you would think time is on the Russians side. But Russia is going to have a problem replacing equipment while UKR is going to get a steady flow from the West. On the manpower side, Russian can bring in conscripts but they will be poorly trained with low morale. OTOH, I would expect the UKR to be training recruits with very high morale. UKR has something like 10M men of military age so the only issue is how many they can equip and train.
Russian has to grab what they can and then try to hold in a way that doesn't continue to attrit their forces. I think the next 30 or so days are critical. If they can't take ground around Luhansk they likely have to retreat from all of Northern UKR. Even after this they can claim that they have united their territory in the Dombass with the Crimea.....
So Putin is going to try to end this war once it no longer works for him domestically. The idea that Putin can't withstand a defeat is totally wrong. He has convinced the Russian people that this invasion is justified. He can absolutely convince them that a loss is really a successful demilitarization of Ukraine.
Zelensky OTOH has the public support to fight for years. Ukrainians rightly believe that they were attacked for no reason. IMO, the West will be happy to continue to send both arms and humanitarian aid. Financing a proxy war that saps Russia is a dream for the West.
Militarily, Russia knows it cannot conquer Ukraine. The question is what they are going to try to take and hold. In the South, I expect them to retreat from Kherson at some point and hold the line east of the Dnipro river. I can them see them trying to hold a line from Vasylivka east to Donestsk which they held prewar.
In the North, Russia has retreated back behind the Donets river just to the east of Kharkiv. The issue is that they have made no progress in the Luhansk area which has been defended by the UKR army since 2014. To create a line here the Russians need to attack south from Izytum. That is the place to watch. If the Russians can't do this I just don't see a logical line for them to hold other than retreating back to Russia.
Normally you would think time is on the Russians side. But Russia is going to have a problem replacing equipment while UKR is going to get a steady flow from the West. On the manpower side, Russian can bring in conscripts but they will be poorly trained with low morale. OTOH, I would expect the UKR to be training recruits with very high morale. UKR has something like 10M men of military age so the only issue is how many they can equip and train.
Russian has to grab what they can and then try to hold in a way that doesn't continue to attrit their forces. I think the next 30 or so days are critical. If they can't take ground around Luhansk they likely have to retreat from all of Northern UKR. Even after this they can claim that they have united their territory in the Dombass with the Crimea.....