[Goose]

The photo appears to be legit (or this OSINT guy will lose a lot of credibility)
BC

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Another photo…
While your logic made some sense, remember that the Russians were saying they were trying to tug the ship yo Sevastopol, so it’s entirely possible that it survived to daybreak.
BC
One more thread, by a naval architect…


While I was pretty Missouri on the initial picture, I think enough credible people believe it’s legit that I think it’s real, but I’ve been fooled before.


BC

It is possible the ship survived until morning, although that contradicts the reported timeline by Turkey, Romania, and Ukraine. Not to say they couldn't all be wrong, as there is plenty of ambiguity in the data. If the photos are real, it really is a serious indictment of Russian competence. I had always assumed the missiles had hit a Vulcan box, the fuel fire immediately spread and ignited it's twin, and from then on they all cooked off destroying the ship.

The picture shows the SS-N-12 boxes intact, and a fire in or near the engine room. Normally, that shouldn't have been a fatal situation. The engine area is the best protected against fire because engines do catch fire. I would not expect this to sink the ship, at least not quickly. She actually doesn't look that bad. Almost everybody should have been able to get off the ship safely, they launched the lifeboats, she is still floating. I would not expect mass casualties based on what we see. There appear to be no ongoing rescue attempts, so maybe the Russians were telling at least mostly the truth that the crew was rescued. In the pictures I see a 10 to 20 degree list to port, more or less.

It is interesting that the weather is shown as a dead flat calm. The Russians claim the tow failed because the ship capsized in heavy seas. The Ukrainians said the Russian rescue effort failed because of ammunition explosions and heavy seas. I see no heavy seas in the picture. I can certainly believe the Russians would lie about that, but the Ukrainians???

The OSINT guy kind of punts the validity determination to a Ukrainian ship tracker. No exactly a full sail endorsement. I am still a bit Missouri on this myself. When the mainstream media buys it, I will. Until then, it is just another data point along with the Turkish ship that rescued 54 sailors and disappeared from sight.

[Goose]

The photo appears to be legit (or this OSINT guy will lose a lot of credibility)
BC

---

Another photo…
While your logic made some sense, remember that the Russians were saying they were trying to tug the ship yo Sevastopol, so it’s entirely possible that it survived to daybreak.
BC
One more thread, by a naval architect…


While I was pretty Missouri on the initial picture, I think enough credible people believe it’s legit that I think it’s real, but I’ve been fooled before.


BC

It is possible the ship survived until morning, although that contradicts the reported timeline by Turkey, Romania, and Ukraine. Not to say they couldn't all be wrong, as there is plenty of ambiguity in the data. If the photos are real, it really is a serious indictment of Russian competence. I had always assumed the missiles had hit a Vulcan box, the fuel fire immediately spread and ignited it's twin, and from then on they all cooked off destroying the ship.

The picture shows the SS-N-12 boxes intact, and a fire in or near the engine room. Normally, that shouldn't have been a fatal situation. The engine area is the best protected against fire because engines do catch fire. I would not expect this to sink the ship, at least not quickly. She actually doesn't look that bad. Almost everybody should have been able to get off the ship safely, they launched the lifeboats, she is still floating. I would not expect mass casualties based on what we see. There appear to be no ongoing rescue attempts, so maybe the Russians were telling at least mostly the truth that the crew was rescued. In the pictures I see a 10 to 20 degree list to port, more or less.

It is interesting that the weather is shown as a dead flat calm. The Russians claim the tow failed because the ship capsized in heavy seas. The Ukrainians said the Russian rescue effort failed because of ammunition explosions and heavy seas. I see no heavy seas in the picture. I can certainly believe the Russians would lie about that, but the Ukrainians???

The OSINT guy kind of punts the validity determination to a Ukrainian ship tracker. No exactly a full sail endorsement. I am still a bit Missouri on this myself. When the mainstream media buys it, I will. Until then, it is just another data point along with the Turkish ship that rescued 54 sailors and disappeared from sight.