[Mick]

Relevant quote from The NY Times article:

American officials say the warning shows that the weapons being sent are making a big difference on the battlefield. So, for Washington at least, concerns about supplying arms that Russia might consider “escalatory” have ebbed — as has the initial worry that Ukraine will use longer-range weapons, like jet fighters, to attack Moscow itself and set off a bigger war.

The most likely scenario is that Russia is bluffing and that they are powerless to do anything no matter what we give Ukraine. However, there has always been concern about tail risk, a low probability but high impact event. I think that threat recedes as the reality that we are fully arming Ukraine is a “fair accompli”, but it cannot be entirely ignored.

BC

Russia certainly isn't "powerless" to do anything. However, they too are concerned about widening the war. IMHO in so far as our arming Ukraine becomes effective enough that Russia (Putin) has to deal with the fact they might "lose" (where we aren't sure what losing actually is), the more probable he will do something drastic to scare us (or the EU) into stopping. Your take on the subject is rational. Unfortunately, Putin's probably is not.

What do you think is the likelihood that Putin resorts to nukes?

[Mick]

Relevant quote from The NY Times article:

American officials say the warning shows that the weapons being sent are making a big difference on the battlefield. So, for Washington at least, concerns about supplying arms that Russia might consider “escalatory” have ebbed — as has the initial worry that Ukraine will use longer-range weapons, like jet fighters, to attack Moscow itself and set off a bigger war.

The most likely scenario is that Russia is bluffing and that they are powerless to do anything no matter what we give Ukraine. However, there has always been concern about tail risk, a low probability but high impact event. I think that threat recedes as the reality that we are fully arming Ukraine is a “fair accompli”, but it cannot be entirely ignored.

BC

Russia certainly isn't "powerless" to do anything. However, they too are concerned about widening the war. IMHO in so far as our arming Ukraine becomes effective enough that Russia (Putin) has to deal with the fact they might "lose" (where we aren't sure what losing actually is), the more probable he will do something drastic to scare us (or the EU) into stopping. Your take on the subject is rational. Unfortunately, Putin's probably is not.

What do you think is the likelihood that Putin resorts to nukes?