[Goose]

Russia cannot stop us from giving weapons to the Ukrainians. The best they can try to do is disrupt the transfers, for example, by lobbing missiles at the staging area in Poland where the weapons are being delivered, but that is a high risk strategy, and they can try to dissuade NATO from giving the tech, including by threatening a nuclear retaliation. But ultimately, any such attempts are as effective as people trying to dissuade Putin from invading Ukraine. We always knew he was going to do what he was going to do.


BC

OK, a couple of hypothetical situations. First, Russia says they will shoot down any US aircraft that enter Polish airspace. They can credibly do that. What does the US do in response to the threat and what does the US do in response to the action?
Second scenario, Russia tells the Poles that any US aid flowing through Poland will result in an unspecified attack on a Polish city. What does the US do, and more importantly, what does Poland do in response to the threat?

The difference is that Putin will do what Putin does because he doesn't have to worry about keeping the Poles (and other NATO allies) happy and he doesn't think the US will start a war over Ukraine. He may be wrong, but he is willing to take risks that no sane man would take (as this entire war illustrates). The US and NATO are much more risk averse. Therein lies the danger. It is quite possible that the US and/or Poland can be dissuaded, so Putin may try it.

[Goose]

Russia cannot stop us from giving weapons to the Ukrainians. The best they can try to do is disrupt the transfers, for example, by lobbing missiles at the staging area in Poland where the weapons are being delivered, but that is a high risk strategy, and they can try to dissuade NATO from giving the tech, including by threatening a nuclear retaliation. But ultimately, any such attempts are as effective as people trying to dissuade Putin from invading Ukraine. We always knew he was going to do what he was going to do.


BC

OK, a couple of hypothetical situations. First, Russia says they will shoot down any US aircraft that enter Polish airspace. They can credibly do that. What does the US do in response to the threat and what does the US do in response to the action?
Second scenario, Russia tells the Poles that any US aid flowing through Poland will result in an unspecified attack on a Polish city. What does the US do, and more importantly, what does Poland do in response to the threat?

The difference is that Putin will do what Putin does because he doesn't have to worry about keeping the Poles (and other NATO allies) happy and he doesn't think the US will start a war over Ukraine. He may be wrong, but he is willing to take risks that no sane man would take (as this entire war illustrates). The US and NATO are much more risk averse. Therein lies the danger. It is quite possible that the US and/or Poland can be dissuaded, so Putin may try it.