[Goose]

The hit to German GDP of giving up Russian gas is estimated to be 1.3% over the next two years.  https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/economy/g...index.html

From the article: "Germany would plunge into a deep recession if its supply of Russian natural gas was suddenly shut off, the country's top forecasters warned on Wednesday."
Another source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/m...ns-germany
The Bundesbank forecasts a 5% drop in GDP. Equally importantly Scholz and Yellen are in that camp.
https://www.ft.com/content/0738a816-cb3c...8489bf4c9c
I would strongly suspect their thinking is governing, unfortunately IMHO. Even if it is 5%, it isn't as bad as thousands of Ukrainians being killed.

I think you underestimate the degree to which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents the European breaking point.

I agree it represents a European breaking point. The question is, which way Europe breaks. I think what we are seeing is Europe being forced to realize their world view didn't reflect reality. How they respond is the issue.

Hopefully we never find out what happens if Russia fires a missile at a NATO country, but I think the calculus of confronting Russia has materially changed.  The response has not been similar to the muted western response to the annexation of Crimea, because unlike Crimea, which had previously been Russian territory and had many Russian speakers who didn’t want to be part of Ukraine, one could not twist oneself in knots to justify the invasion.

Crimea was "different" because it was part of Ukraine only because of bureaucratic considerations in the USSR, not because of any historical association. Of course, it's forced annexation still should have been disallowed among civilized states, but that was too much trouble. Who cares about international law and the like?

The list of things that was unthinkable in January 2022 has actually happened:

Germany shutting down Nordstream II after construction was already finished.

To be clear, Nordstream II was never started up. It was finished and awaiting certification by the government, which it never got. Your point stands, this is a detail.

Germany getting its military expenditure to NATO requirements (2%), this year
Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO (hasn’t happened yet, but is imminent)
Germany giving offensive weapons to an active combatant (as recently as February, Germany was being made fun of for offering helmets to Ukraine, and was refusing third countries giving German-made equipment to Ukraine)
Belgium reversing its plan to decommission its nuclear power plants by 2025 (sadly, Germany has not reversed course on its planned closures by the end of the year)
The US, And NATO countries giving Ukraine “offensive” weaponry (tanks, artillery, rockets, long-range drones, and it sounds like, even aircraft).
US and EU cutting a sizable number of Russian banks from SWIFT
US and EU freezing Russian assets
UK actually going after Russian oligarchs, including forcing Roman Abramovich to sell off Chelsea.
US sharing real-time intelligence with Ukraine
Basically, at this point, the only red line that remains is actually entering the fight and shooting at the Russians. An attack on a NATO country would probably break that taboo, and while we probably won’t see Polish tanks rolling into the Donbas, NATO could start flying sortees into Ukrainian airspace (probably the West at first, but slowly expanding),

IMHO, not a chance in the world, unless NATO takes over the entire war. This is for technical reasons. The NATO IFF is not compatible with the one used by Ukraine. It would be a blue force on yellow force nightmare, never mind the red force. 

with everyband special forces on the ground directing Ukrainian firepower in much the same way that Americans worked with the Kurds to defeat ISIS without being directly involved.
BC

I suspect this might already be happening to some degree. I also suspect contractors are working in Ukraine to train and to support newly delivered equipment.

The problem is that none of these unprecedented events addresses the Polish city being hit to stop deliveries through Poland. It does not protect Poland from those strikes, or even pretend to do so. The Polish Prime Minister has to recommend a response. He could ask NATO to invoke Article 5, but he knows that Hungary will vote no. He also knows that Bulgaria probably will too. He also knows that Germany is militarily pretty much a zero right now. The US will undoubtedly plead with him not to do this, because it shows that NATO is totally impotent in this situation. So, what does he do? Does he go to his people and say "We just have to bear this burden of being the only NATO country whose citizens are being killed because it is the right thing to do?". If he does that, how long will he be Prime Minister? I think it is possible for such an appeal to succeed. Zelenskyy is in effect asking this and more from his people. But Ukraine has no choice. Poland does, at least for now. I believe they will (justifiably) feel abandoned by their allies and will go with their own self-interest. Remember, they use Russian gas too. This is what I fear is the "turning point".

I believe it was Finland's Prime Minister who said that Finland isn't joining NATO only to buy fire insurance, but also to join the fire brigade. The present hypothetical situation illustrates that if Russia doesn't  attack your country with full force, maybe that brigade isn't coming. What message does this send to Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria? Even to Finland? Asymmetric warfare is a bitch for alliances.

[Goose]

The hit to German GDP of giving up Russian gas is estimated to be 1.3% over the next two years.  https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/13/economy/g...index.html

From the article: "Germany would plunge into a deep recession if its supply of Russian natural gas was suddenly shut off, the country's top forecasters warned on Wednesday."
Another source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/m...ns-germany
The Bundesbank forecasts a 5% drop in GDP. Equally importantly Scholz and Yellen are in that camp.
https://www.ft.com/content/0738a816-cb3c...8489bf4c9c
I would strongly suspect their thinking is governing, unfortunately IMHO. Even if it is 5%, it isn't as bad as thousands of Ukrainians being killed.

I think you underestimate the degree to which Russia’s invasion of Ukraine represents the European breaking point.

I agree it represents a European breaking point. The question is, which way Europe breaks. I think what we are seeing is Europe being forced to realize their world view didn't reflect reality. How they respond is the issue.

Hopefully we never find out what happens if Russia fires a missile at a NATO country, but I think the calculus of confronting Russia has materially changed.  The response has not been similar to the muted western response to the annexation of Crimea, because unlike Crimea, which had previously been Russian territory and had many Russian speakers who didn’t want to be part of Ukraine, one could not twist oneself in knots to justify the invasion.

Crimea was "different" because it was part of Ukraine only because of bureaucratic considerations in the USSR, not because of any historical association. Of course, it's forced annexation still should have been disallowed among civilized states, but that was too much trouble. Who cares about international law and the like?

The list of things that was unthinkable in January 2022 has actually happened:

Germany shutting down Nordstream II after construction was already finished.

To be clear, Nordstream II was never started up. It was finished and awaiting certification by the government, which it never got. Your point stands, this is a detail.

Germany getting its military expenditure to NATO requirements (2%), this year
Sweden and Finland applying to join NATO (hasn’t happened yet, but is imminent)
Germany giving offensive weapons to an active combatant (as recently as February, Germany was being made fun of for offering helmets to Ukraine, and was refusing third countries giving German-made equipment to Ukraine)
Belgium reversing its plan to decommission its nuclear power plants by 2025 (sadly, Germany has not reversed course on its planned closures by the end of the year)
The US, And NATO countries giving Ukraine “offensive” weaponry (tanks, artillery, rockets, long-range drones, and it sounds like, even aircraft).
US and EU cutting a sizable number of Russian banks from SWIFT
US and EU freezing Russian assets
UK actually going after Russian oligarchs, including forcing Roman Abramovich to sell off Chelsea.
US sharing real-time intelligence with Ukraine
Basically, at this point, the only red line that remains is actually entering the fight and shooting at the Russians. An attack on a NATO country would probably break that taboo, and while we probably won’t see Polish tanks rolling into the Donbas, NATO could start flying sortees into Ukrainian airspace (probably the West at first, but slowly expanding),

IMHO, not a chance in the world, unless NATO takes over the entire war. This is for technical reasons. The NATO IFF is not compatible with the one used by Ukraine. It would be a blue force on yellow force nightmare, never mind the red force. 

with everyband special forces on the ground directing Ukrainian firepower in much the same way that Americans worked with the Kurds to defeat ISIS without being directly involved.
BC

I suspect this might already be happening to some degree. I also suspect contractors are working in Ukraine to train and to support newly delivered equipment.

The problem is that none of these unprecedented events addresses the Polish city being hit to stop deliveries through Poland. It does not protect Poland from those strikes, or even pretend to do so. The Polish Prime Minister has to recommend a response. He could ask NATO to invoke Article 5, but he knows that Hungary will vote no. He also knows that Bulgaria probably will too. He also knows that Germany is militarily pretty much a zero right now. The US will undoubtedly plead with him not to do this, because it shows that NATO is totally impotent in this situation. So, what does he do? Does he go to his people and say "We just have to bear this burden of being the only NATO country whose citizens are being killed because it is the right thing to do?". If he does that, how long will he be Prime Minister? I think it is possible for such an appeal to succeed. Zelenskyy is in effect asking this and more from his people. But Ukraine has no choice. Poland does, at least for now. I believe they will (justifiably) feel abandoned by their allies and will go with their own self-interest. Remember, they use Russian gas too. This is what I fear is the "turning point".

I believe it was Finland's Prime Minister who said that Finland isn't joining NATO only to buy fire insurance, but also to join the fire brigade. The present hypothetical situation illustrates that if Russia doesn't  attack your country with full force, maybe that brigade isn't coming. What message does this send to Romania, Hungary, and Bulgaria? Even to Finland? Asymmetric warfare is a bitch for alliances.