[Goose]

Using basic logic, the escalating support the west is giving Ukraine suggests military and diplomatic leaders know they are already at war against Russia as well.

I am not so sure about "basic logic" in this situation. Basic logic would suggest this whole situation would never happen. That said, if the West and Russia are engaged in a war, it is certainly a proxy war. If it weren't USAFE would have eliminated the Russian supply convoys around Kiev in about the three hours they estimated it would take. It is also certainly an asymmetric war in that Russia has troops in contact and the West does not. That is a very big deal. The West very much doesn't want Ukraine to be defeated, but at present has limited tactical risk and no "skin" in the game. It is unclear how far the West will go in increasing that risk. Russia is certainly "more in". For them, the tactical and strategic options available are much more limited and potentially risky (both to them and the world).

And, my guess is NATO knows Russia's plans because western intelligence knows where Putin is taking his morning dump.

Unfortunately, no. The two reasons for this are 1) The decision making in Russia has become so concentrated it is difficult to get any information. Putin is in a bubble that is kind of a "black hole". Another way to look at it is that even high level Russians don't know what the war aims/strategy actually is, let alone Western intelligence agencies. We get satellite images and intercepted communications from which we try to piece things together and guess what Russia will do next. Little reliable human intelligence. 2) Russia fell of the table as an intelligence target in the mid 90s and hit the floor in the Obama administration. No priority, no money, and all the Russian experts retired. We know much less today than we did during the Cold War.

[Goose]

Using basic logic, the escalating support the west is giving Ukraine suggests military and diplomatic leaders know they are already at war against Russia as well.

I am not so sure about "basic logic" in this situation. Basic logic would suggest this whole situation would never happen. That said, if the West and Russia are engaged in a war, it is certainly a proxy war. If it weren't USAFE would have eliminated the Russian supply convoys around Kiev in about the three hours they estimated it would take. It is also certainly an asymmetric war in that Russia has troops in contact and the West does not. That is a very big deal. The West very much doesn't want Ukraine to be defeated, but at present has limited tactical risk and no "skin" in the game. It is unclear how far the West will go in increasing that risk. Russia is certainly "more in". For them, the tactical and strategic options available are much more limited and potentially risky (both to them and the world).

And, my guess is NATO knows Russia's plans because western intelligence knows where Putin is taking his morning dump.

Unfortunately, no. The two reasons for this are 1) The decision making in Russia has become so concentrated it is difficult to get any information. Putin is in a bubble that is kind of a "black hole". Another way to look at it is that even high level Russians don't know what the war aims/strategy actually is, let alone Western intelligence agencies. We get satellite images and intercepted communications from which we try to piece things together and guess what Russia will do next. Little reliable human intelligence. 2) Russia fell of the table as an intelligence target in the mid 90s and hit the floor in the Obama administration. No priority, no money, and all the Russian experts retired. We know much less today than we did during the Cold War.