[Goose]

I don’t know whether this source is reliable, but it suggests that US intel agrees with your speculation that Russia might try to invade Transnistria or Moldova through Ukrainian territory west of Odessa:

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/st...8112090112

There is apparently some reason to believe the US troop movement was a previously scheduled activity. Since Moldova is not a NATO nation, they would have to ask for "help" much as Ukraine did. I have no idea how it would play out. Romania and Moldova have close cultural ties. I think the US would still try to stay out of a Moldova/Transnistria conflict in terms of troops on the ground, but it may be politically difficult/impossible for Romania to do so. It also could be that Russia has no intention of widening the war but wants to force us to prepare as if they will. Still, better to prepare and not need it than visa-versa.

The arguments against an amphibious assault west of Odesa are many. For one thing, it will bring Russian ships repeatedly into Ukraine's missile engagement zone. It also exposes them to air attack without Moskva to protect them or vector Russian interceptors (who would be a long way from home) to do so. The Russian frigates do have anti-air capability, but it is far from robust. Further, they don't have lots of frigates and if they lose one they are then on the far end of a very long unprotected supply line. Building up a big enough force in Moldova to threaten Ukraine under those circumstances would be hard.

If the US were trying to do such a thing, I would be worried but figure it could be done. The key is to establish an airhead in Moldova to protect the landing. The order would be the Transnistria troops seize and appropriate airport (with a fuel supply). Russian aircraft would then fly there. They have to do that by overflying Ukraine or by staying south in the Black Sea and then turning right. The latter is a long flight for gas guzzler Russian airplanes. Possible but risky. Presumably Ukraine will attempt to stop such an event. Then, you have to fly weapons into the airhead. Even riskier.
Without an airhead, I don't think they can protect the landing. Only problem would be if Ukraine has nothing left of their Air Force to attack the landing force with. The good news is the counter-air would be practically nil. Better odds than in the Donbas.

[Goose]

I don’t know whether this source is reliable, but it suggests that US intel agrees with your speculation that Russia might try to invade Transnistria or Moldova through Ukrainian territory west of Odessa:

https://mobile.twitter.com/visegrad24/st...8112090112

There is apparently some reason to believe the US troop movement was a previously scheduled activity. Since Moldova is not a NATO nation, they would have to ask for "help" much as Ukraine did. I have no idea how it would play out. Romania and Moldova have close cultural ties. I think the US would still try to stay out of a Moldova/Transnistria conflict in terms of troops on the ground, but it may be politically difficult/impossible for Romania to do so. It also could be that Russia has no intention of widening the war but wants to force us to prepare as if they will. Still, better to prepare and not need it than visa-versa.

The arguments against an amphibious assault west of Odesa are many. For one thing, it will bring Russian ships repeatedly into Ukraine's missile engagement zone. It also exposes them to air attack without Moskva to protect them or vector Russian interceptors (who would be a long way from home) to do so. The Russian frigates do have anti-air capability, but it is far from robust. Further, they don't have lots of frigates and if they lose one they are then on the far end of a very long unprotected supply line. Building up a big enough force in Moldova to threaten Ukraine under those circumstances would be hard.

If the US were trying to do such a thing, I would be worried but figure it could be done. The key is to establish an airhead in Moldova to protect the landing. The order would be the Transnistria troops seize and appropriate airport (with a fuel supply). Russian aircraft would then fly there. They have to do that by overflying Ukraine or by staying south in the Black Sea and then turning right. The latter is a long flight for gas guzzler Russian airplanes. Possible but risky. Presumably Ukraine will attempt to stop such an event. Then, you have to fly weapons into the airhead. Even riskier.
Without an airhead, I don't think they can protect the landing. Only problem would be if Ukraine has nothing left of their Air Force to attack the landing force with. The good news is the counter-air would be practically nil. Better odds than in the Donbas.