[Goose]

200 tanks. Russia cutting off the gas doesn't seem to have shaken their resolve.

Poland claims they were prepared for this. They have a large stockpile and an LNG terminal in place. They are also tied in to the Baltic States who also have an LNG terminal (actually, I think they have two, one they built and a mobile one they lease?). How adequate that is in winter, I don't know, but for the next 5 months they are probably OK. They are also building a pipeline to Norway, which it seems will be done before winter.

I hope the US has ensured them that we will supply the LNG in case the open market can't. We can share the pain a bit. It looks like Poland may have taken care of itself. I am hoping Germany will take themselves off the Russian customer list, but it still isn't a sure thing.

The country that is really in worse shape is Bulgaria, as they didn't prepare for this. They have gas for one month in storage. They will have to scramble for the rest. They have no LNG terminals, and even if they did it would be in the Black Sea which right now is a shipping risk. There is traffic but the further north you go it really thins out. Greece is their best bet, but there is no pipeline in place, at least that anybody is talking about.

UPDATE: Yes, Bulgaria will have a pipeline before winter, hopefully much before.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/gas-pipeline-...06779.html

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Thanks MT. It does have the ring of misinformation, though it was retweeted by an account I trust (who might have fallen for the misinfo). 


BC

I have been hoping that these units and/or the HIMARS would be supplied to Ukraine. Properly used, they are a game changer. While M777 counter-battery can be effective, it is a lot "iffier" and requires the tubes be positioned closer to the target. It requires more people and more logistics. The tubes are also more vulnerable because moving them takes longer. The MLRS units can obliterate a Russian artillery unit if it is at known coordinates and can do so from quite far away. That unit will simply be gone.

The range and accuracy of the MLRS units depends on the missiles supplied. The older ones were area weapons, similar to the Russian Grad rockets. These units used cluster munitions to compensate for lack of accuracy. Russia has been using these munitions in Ukraine, so I would expect Ukraine using them would be allowable as well. While we have retrofitted many missiles with simple HE warheads, the simple fact is they don't work as well. The newer missiles (ATACMS) are longer range (300 km) and quite accurate. Note that these rockets are GPS guided and Russia has been jamming the GPS system in Ukraine quite heavily. I suspect (but don't know) there are "dual mode" rockets that use GLONASS as well.

The US may be supplying these systems to Ukraine and not acknowledging it, or one of the other NATO countries may be doing so. If they are there in any numbers, I would expect Russia to be bitching and threatening loud and clear. There would be lots of dead Russians and many more very skittish ones. The longer range rockets of these systems could also reach into Russia, and the US may be worried about that. For those reasons, I am a skeptic. However, I do hope it has happened.

[Goose]

200 tanks. Russia cutting off the gas doesn't seem to have shaken their resolve.

Poland claims they were prepared for this. They have a large stockpile and an LNG terminal in place. They are also tied in to the Baltic States who also have an LNG terminal (actually, I think they have two, one they built and a mobile one they lease?). How adequate that is in winter, I don't know, but for the next 5 months they are probably OK. They are also building a pipeline to Norway, which it seems will be done before winter.

I hope the US has ensured them that we will supply the LNG in case the open market can't. We can share the pain a bit. It looks like Poland may have taken care of itself. I am hoping Germany will take themselves off the Russian customer list, but it still isn't a sure thing.

The country that is really in worse shape is Bulgaria, as they didn't prepare for this. They have gas for one month in storage. They will have to scramble for the rest. They have no LNG terminals, and even if they did it would be in the Black Sea which right now is a shipping risk. There is traffic but the further north you go it really thins out. Greece is their best bet, but there is no pipeline in place, at least that anybody is talking about.

UPDATE: Yes, Bulgaria will have a pipeline before winter, hopefully much before.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/gas-pipeline-...06779.html

---

Thanks MT. It does have the ring of misinformation, though it was retweeted by an account I trust (who might have fallen for the misinfo). 


BC

I have been hoping that these units and/or the HIMARS would be supplied to Ukraine. Properly used, they are a game changer. While M777 counter-battery can be effective, it is a lot "iffier" and requires the tubes be positioned closer to the target. It requires more people and more logistics. The tubes are also more vulnerable because moving them takes longer. The MLRS units can obliterate a Russian artillery unit if it is at known coordinates and can do so from quite far away. That unit will simply be gone.

The range and accuracy of the MLRS units depends on the missiles supplied. The older ones were area weapons, similar to the Russian Grad rockets. These units used cluster munitions to compensate for lack of accuracy. Russia has been using these munitions in Ukraine, so I would expect Ukraine using them would be allowable as well. While we have retrofitted many missiles with simple HE warheads, the simple fact is they don't work as well. The newer missiles (ATACMS) are longer range (300 km) and quite accurate. Note that these rockets are GPS guided and Russia has been jamming the GPS system in Ukraine quite heavily. I suspect (but don't know) there are "dual mode" rockets that use GLONASS as well.

The US may be supplying these systems to Ukraine and not acknowledging it, or one of the other NATO countries may be doing so. If they are there in any numbers, I would expect Russia to be bitching and threatening loud and clear. There would be lots of dead Russians and many more very skittish ones. The longer range rockets of these systems could also reach into Russia, and the US may be worried about that. For those reasons, I am a skeptic. However, I do hope it has happened.