[TrumpCard]

The Ukrainians are defending skillfully and admirably, but I don’t see how they will push Russia all the way back to 2/24 borders. If the heuristic is that an attacker wants to outnumber the defender 3:1, Ukraine is not close to those numbers. My understanding is that they are more like 2:3. Maybe they can get local advantages and push Russia back here and there, but I don’t see 2/24 borders happening. The Ukrainian economy will be hurting, but the people will adjust to a lower standard of living. Israel has survived in the desert with a heck of a lot fewer natural resources and plenty of regional foes for 74 years. The Ukrainians are capable of doing it too.  I just hope the humanitarian toll between now and the end of the conflict is not too immense.

[TrumpCard]

The Ukrainians are defending skillfully and admirably, but I don’t see how they will push Russia all the way back to 2/24 borders. If the heuristic is that an attacker wants to outnumber the defender 3:1, Ukraine is not close to those numbers. My understanding is that they are more like 2:3. Maybe they can get local advantages and push Russia back here and there, but I don’t see 2/24 borders happening. The Ukrainian economy will be hurting, but the people will adjust to a lower standard of living. Israel has survived in the desert with a heck of a lot fewer natural resources and plenty of regional foes for 74 years. The Ukrainians are capable of doing it too.  I just hope the humanitarian toll between now and the end of the conflict is not too immense.