[Treefence]

Treefence, I sure hope that your prediction turns out to be true. Note from the ISW update yesterday, which I linked above, that Ukraine reported incurring heavy losses to retake a tow on the outskirts of Kharkiv. That may be worth the cost considering that control of the town may protect Kharkiv from shelling, but it’s a warning sign as well. Retaking land is difficult when the occupier has had sufficient time to take a defensive position. Maybe this phenomenon will be less true in areas further from the Russian border or after a longer time period of occupation. That has to be the hope.

I hope so too.  And let me clarify, while I think after a few weeks, the Ukrainians will begin pushing back, I have no predictions on how long it will take.  It would be lovely if we see massive withdrawals by Russians, like we did after the first phase of the war, but think it's more likely that Ukrainians will have to take back their land, and it will lead to many casualties, on both sides.

[Treefence]

Treefence, I sure hope that your prediction turns out to be true. Note from the ISW update yesterday, which I linked above, that Ukraine reported incurring heavy losses to retake a tow on the outskirts of Kharkiv. That may be worth the cost considering that control of the town may protect Kharkiv from shelling, but it’s a warning sign as well. Retaking land is difficult when the occupier has had sufficient time to take a defensive position. Maybe this phenomenon will be less true in areas further from the Russian border or after a longer time period of occupation. That has to be the hope.

I hope so too.  And let me clarify, while I think after a few weeks, the Ukrainians will begin pushing back, I have no predictions on how long it will take.  It would be lovely if we see massive withdrawals by Russians, like we did after the first phase of the war, but think it's more likely that Ukrainians will have to take back their land, and it will lead to many casualties, on both sides.