[Goose]

The big unknown is Putin's mindset.  Here is my crazy opinion.  I don't think Putin will accept defeat.  If things go really poorly and Ukraine starts to push conventional Russian forces out of its territory I expect Putin will use chemical weapons.  If that's not enough he'll start using tactical nuclear weapons.  It's not going to end well.

There's no way Putin says to his population, "OK we lost, all that was for nothing.  Let's move on".    Also if the war ends Putin knows at this point the West will hunt him down, put him in jail, and charge him with war crimes.  IMO Putin would rather start WWIII than be imprisoned for war crimes.  This scenario is still many months out. 

I  don't know the answer.   At the moment IMO the only hope is someone high up in the Russian military decides to take out Putin.  That seems like a remote possibility.

I basically agree with you about Putin. However, I am more optimistic that there are people in the Russian government/military that at some point will decide the risk of continuing to go along with Putin outweighs the risk of getting rid of him. These people are undoubtedly not "nice guys", but in the typical Russian manner self-interest eventually will dictate a change in leadership. If Putin attempts to use nuclear weapons, I am pretty sure somebody would take him out. Chemical weapons in Ukraine are a 50-50 on that, because the Putin opponents don't quite know what the US will do. Tac nuclear will undoubtedly spark a response that will cost Russia (especially the Russian military) dearly. They also know that the whole thing can spiral out of control. Putin may have nothing to lose, but others do.

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I agree with dabigv; it’s one thing to turn against your government for a collapse in standard of living when it is waging a war a half world away; it’s another when you see images of your countrymen being massacred in the streets.  I think even if Zolensky were inclined to aggressively pursue a negotiated peace, I don’t think a large segment of his population would approve it. Right now, he would be thrown out for not taking a hard enough line, not for taking too hard a line.

That is because you think like a member of the western world. Remember, their own government did that to Ukrainians when Stalin was around. Yes, there was resistance, but the vast majority Ukrainians still supported their government in WW II. AN-XXX airplanes were built in Ukraine. So was Moskva. The Ukrainians elected Yanukovych. It was a fair election. Right now, Zelenskyy would be thrown out for not taking a hard enough line if he tried to sign a treaty. In 9 months that can be very different, especially if the high expectations of "prompt" victory are not met and Ukrainians are still dying in the streets.

One positive for Ukraine is that despite reports of their “undying friendship”, it looks like the Chinese have quietly left Putin and the Russians twisting in the wind…




Maybe the Chinese are eyeing some of the resource rich but now poorly defended territory in Siberia?



BC

Maybe, but I expect it is a more simple explanation. They asked "What benefit do we gain by helping Russia?". The answer was basically nothing. Putin is not a friend of China. He is a friend of Putin. Being "closer" to Russia is being chained to a country that isn't a good customer and won't really offer China anything gratis. Anything they need from Russia they can just buy, as Russia needs the money. The price probably goes down if Russia loses in Ukraine because Russia will need the money even more. Better for China if that happens.

OTOH, pissing off the EU and the US is making your best trading partners even madder at you than they are already. No reason to do that. It is just a simple benefit/cost analysis.

[Goose]

The big unknown is Putin's mindset.  Here is my crazy opinion.  I don't think Putin will accept defeat.  If things go really poorly and Ukraine starts to push conventional Russian forces out of its territory I expect Putin will use chemical weapons.  If that's not enough he'll start using tactical nuclear weapons.  It's not going to end well.

There's no way Putin says to his population, "OK we lost, all that was for nothing.  Let's move on".    Also if the war ends Putin knows at this point the West will hunt him down, put him in jail, and charge him with war crimes.  IMO Putin would rather start WWIII than be imprisoned for war crimes.  This scenario is still many months out. 

I  don't know the answer.   At the moment IMO the only hope is someone high up in the Russian military decides to take out Putin.  That seems like a remote possibility.

I basically agree with you about Putin. However, I am more optimistic that there are people in the Russian government/military that at some point will decide the risk of continuing to go along with Putin outweighs the risk of getting rid of him. These people are undoubtedly not "nice guys", but in the typical Russian manner self-interest eventually will dictate a change in leadership. If Putin attempts to use nuclear weapons, I am pretty sure somebody would take him out. Chemical weapons in Ukraine are a 50-50 on that, because the Putin opponents don't quite know what the US will do. Tac nuclear will undoubtedly spark a response that will cost Russia (especially the Russian military) dearly. They also know that the whole thing can spiral out of control. Putin may have nothing to lose, but others do.

---

I agree with dabigv; it’s one thing to turn against your government for a collapse in standard of living when it is waging a war a half world away; it’s another when you see images of your countrymen being massacred in the streets.  I think even if Zolensky were inclined to aggressively pursue a negotiated peace, I don’t think a large segment of his population would approve it. Right now, he would be thrown out for not taking a hard enough line, not for taking too hard a line.

That is because you think like a member of the western world. Remember, their own government did that to Ukrainians when Stalin was around. Yes, there was resistance, but the vast majority Ukrainians still supported their government in WW II. AN-XXX airplanes were built in Ukraine. So was Moskva. The Ukrainians elected Yanukovych. It was a fair election. Right now, Zelenskyy would be thrown out for not taking a hard enough line if he tried to sign a treaty. In 9 months that can be very different, especially if the high expectations of "prompt" victory are not met and Ukrainians are still dying in the streets.

One positive for Ukraine is that despite reports of their “undying friendship”, it looks like the Chinese have quietly left Putin and the Russians twisting in the wind…




Maybe the Chinese are eyeing some of the resource rich but now poorly defended territory in Siberia?



BC

Maybe, but I expect it is a more simple explanation. They asked "What benefit do we gain by helping Russia?". The answer was basically nothing. Putin is not a friend of China. He is a friend of Putin. Being "closer" to Russia is being chained to a country that isn't a good customer and won't really offer China anything gratis. Anything they need from Russia they can just buy, as Russia needs the money. The price probably goes down if Russia loses in Ukraine because Russia will need the money even more. Better for China if that happens.

OTOH, pissing off the EU and the US is making your best trading partners even madder at you than they are already. No reason to do that. It is just a simple benefit/cost analysis.