[dabigv13]

There was a map floating around this week showing the line between Russian and Ukrainian troops divided into ~7 sections with rough estimates of Russian BTGs and Ukrainian regiments in each of those sections of the battlefield.  It also had the length of each section of the front line and the approximate number of BTGs per km. It showed that Ukraine had someone consistent density of forces, whereas Russia had something like 4x-5x the density of forces in Izyum and the Donbas compared to Kharkiv and Kherson. My takeaway was that this counter offensive was predictable and something similar in Izyum or the Donbas in unlikely for now.

The map is here- the author has indicated that the numbers should be understood to be pretty general, especially on the Ukrainian side.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1521529499296350209?s=20&t=7JGg-ihCLd5MRoFjkj93sA[/tweet]

Ukraine has been doing some local counteroffensives in the Donbas.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/15228...RoFjkj93sA[/tweet]

And they don't necessarily need to use APCs to move their units. They can and have been using plain old SUVs if you watch the videos they have put out from the Kharkiv counteroffensive. They control their territory and can move through it freely away from the very frontlines. Another reason why Russia's inability to establish air superiority has been terrible for them. They have also just recently allowed for TDF "dad's army" (but often made up of recent Donbas veterans) to be redeployed away from their home areas.

I think we are seeing the Russian's offensive culmination now. Ukraine will probably continue their gains around Kharkiv and Kherson in the next few weeks, and a few weeks down the line will probably start to regain in the Donbas. The first M777s are just now starting to be deployed.

I suspect Russia is going to start losing like Hemingway wrote about bankruptcy, gradually and then suddenly.

[dabigv13]

There was a map floating around this week showing the line between Russian and Ukrainian troops divided into ~7 sections with rough estimates of Russian BTGs and Ukrainian regiments in each of those sections of the battlefield.  It also had the length of each section of the front line and the approximate number of BTGs per km. It showed that Ukraine had someone consistent density of forces, whereas Russia had something like 4x-5x the density of forces in Izyum and the Donbas compared to Kharkiv and Kherson. My takeaway was that this counter offensive was predictable and something similar in Izyum or the Donbas in unlikely for now.

The map is here- the author has indicated that the numbers should be understood to be pretty general, especially on the Ukrainian side.

[Tweet]https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/status/1521529499296350209?s=20&t=7JGg-ihCLd5MRoFjkj93sA[/tweet]

Ukraine has been doing some local counteroffensives in the Donbas.

[Tweet]
https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/15228...RoFjkj93sA[/tweet]

And they don't necessarily need to use APCs to move their units. They can and have been using plain old SUVs if you watch the videos they have put out from the Kharkiv counteroffensive. They control their territory and can move through it freely away from the very frontlines. Another reason why Russia's inability to establish air superiority has been terrible for them. They have also just recently allowed for TDF "dad's army" (but often made up of recent Donbas veterans) to be redeployed away from their home areas.

I think we are seeing the Russian's offensive culmination now. Ukraine will probably continue their gains around Kharkiv and Kherson in the next few weeks, and a few weeks down the line will probably start to regain in the Donbas. The first M777s are just now starting to be deployed.

I suspect Russia is going to start losing like Hemingway wrote about bankruptcy, gradually and then suddenly.