[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1524084125300400128?s=21&t=Ak4WgYaWoHV2M2OyYv1S6w[/tweet]

This seems like a pretty neutral summary.  I think it is fair to be a bit skeptical of things until there is confirmation.  There are likely three things going on: 1) fog of war, 2) Ukrainians are providing much more information, so we tend to see things from their side and 3) probably some bias as well; I think most of us are “rooting” for Ukraine to win, and cognitive biases would have us emphasize the positives and de-emphasize the negatives.

That being said, on the biggest stories of the war so far, they have turned to be pretty good for Ukraine and pretty accurate.  Ukraine winning the battle of Kiev was a big deal.  Sinking the Moskva was important but not critical tactically, but a big deal symbolically.  Against that, Russia has captured Ukrainian territory in the South and East.  All in all, this is going better for Ukraine than most people expected, but the war is far from over, and I think there is probably a better than even chance that at the end of this, Ukraine’s territorial integrity is further compromised.

BC

[BostonCard]

[tweet]https://twitter.com/jackdetsch/status/1524084125300400128?s=21&t=Ak4WgYaWoHV2M2OyYv1S6w[/tweet]

This seems like a pretty neutral summary.  I think it is fair to be a bit skeptical of things until there is confirmation.  There are likely three things going on: 1) fog of war, 2) Ukrainians are providing much more information, so we tend to see things from their side and 3) probably some bias as well; I think most of us are “rooting” for Ukraine to win, and cognitive biases would have us emphasize the positives and de-emphasize the negatives.

That being said, on the biggest stories of the war so far, they have turned to be pretty good for Ukraine and pretty accurate.  Ukraine winning the battle of Kiev was a big deal.  Sinking the Moskva was important but not critical tactically, but a big deal symbolically.  Against that, Russia has captured Ukrainian territory in the South and East.  All in all, this is going better for Ukraine than most people expected, but the war is far from over, and I think there is probably a better than even chance that at the end of this, Ukraine’s territorial integrity is further compromised.

BC