[GK3]

A lot of the equipment has not changed. I posted above about how Ukrainians are using a 1920 vintage machine gun.

BC

True, but the Javelin and one shot cheap drone weapons are brobdingnagian improvement over 1960 weapons, to say nothing of the M 777.  The Ukrainian army may consist predominately of so-called leg infantry but thanks to NATO Countries they are gaining an increasingly more powerful supporting cast.  I have wondered how the A 10 C would survive in this environment.  I don't think a 1000 cheap drones will cost you what an A 10 costs.

---

My view is that Russian advances in the past ~45 days in the Dombas have been pretty limited.

They attacked both west and south from Izyum.  No idea why they attacked west.  The southern attack was meant to cut off and isolate the whole UA position in the Donbass.  Both attacks got around 30-40km and have stalled.  Without a major infusion of forces this RA attack has stalled.

The Russians have also attacked West in the Northern Donbass.  These attacks have also gained about 30-40km.  The problem is that all of the ground taken has been east of the Donets river.  No real ground has been taken West of the river.  It is a pretty logical defensive point that runs through the Donbas all of the way to Severodonetsk.  It doesn't take a military genius to figure out that this is the line the UA is planning to defend and have defended quite well in the eastern part of the Donbass.  

Lack of replacement chips and circuits is also hurting the RA.  I read that they are taking chips out of refrigerators and washing machines to keep gear running.  If they get to the point that can't remain modern equipment they will find themselves between a rock and hard place.

Until the Russians cross the Donets or really resume the attack south from Izyum this is all just a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.

OTOH, the UA has gained similar territory to the RA around Kharkiv.  They have also taken 30-40km of ground and have now reached the Donets from the west.  It looks like a matter of time until they push the RA across the border in this sector.  My guess is they they drive south to expel the RA from Izyum and drive all of the their forces east of the Donets.  And we should note that the UA is doing this with a pretty small force.

My view is that this battlefield is still pretty fluid.  The RA is not grinding down the UA.  They are taking in places and losing in places.  The UA is likely getting stronger as conscripts get experience and western aid is flowing in.  The RA is likely getting weaker as they struggle to replace lost men and equipment.

My view is that the UA is winning FWIW.

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This is a deep dive into the deficiencies in the Russian Air Force. I’ve heard some critiques of the article, but I think it is directionally correct.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...ne/629803/

I heard a Ukrainian pilot interviewed, and he basically said that the Russian pilots are flying scared, and that the minute there is any sort of engagement, they fly back to safe territory. Hard to do effective sorties that way.

BC

The Russian pilots are doing the minimum and are coming home alive. Smarter than the average bear. The Ukrainian pilot is probably exactly correct. Given the disparity of numbers, Russia could exchange jets at a 1:1 or maybe even a 1:2 ratio until there were no more Ukrainian jets. The Russian pilots understandably don't care for that tactical approach.

The Atlantic article does have some problems IMHO. As it does point out, Russia has always emphasized tac air. Given that, why is their tac air effort so ineffective? My answer is that Russia has no SEAD/DEAD plan, their pilots know this, and aren't suicidal. In Syria, they didn't need one. In Ukraine, they do.

Here is a theoretical discussion of SEAD/DEAD tactics versus current RA gear including the S400
I have no idea how realistic the assumption are, but they seem to make sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGwU9HKH_Eo

[GK3]

A lot of the equipment has not changed. I posted above about how Ukrainians are using a 1920 vintage machine gun.

BC

True, but the Javelin and one shot cheap drone weapons are brobdingnagian improvement over 1960 weapons, to say nothing of the M 777.  The Ukrainian army may consist predominately of so-called leg infantry but thanks to NATO Countries they are gaining an increasingly more powerful supporting cast.  I have wondered how the A 10 C would survive in this environment.  I don't think a 1000 cheap drones will cost you what an A 10 costs.

---

My view is that Russian advances in the past ~45 days in the Dombas have been pretty limited.

They attacked both west and south from Izyum.  No idea why they attacked west.  The southern attack was meant to cut off and isolate the whole UA position in the Donbass.  Both attacks got around 30-40km and have stalled.  Without a major infusion of forces this RA attack has stalled.

The Russians have also attacked West in the Northern Donbass.  These attacks have also gained about 30-40km.  The problem is that all of the ground taken has been east of the Donets river.  No real ground has been taken West of the river.  It is a pretty logical defensive point that runs through the Donbas all of the way to Severodonetsk.  It doesn't take a military genius to figure out that this is the line the UA is planning to defend and have defended quite well in the eastern part of the Donbass.  

Lack of replacement chips and circuits is also hurting the RA.  I read that they are taking chips out of refrigerators and washing machines to keep gear running.  If they get to the point that can't remain modern equipment they will find themselves between a rock and hard place.

Until the Russians cross the Donets or really resume the attack south from Izyum this is all just a lot of sound and fury signifying nothing.

OTOH, the UA has gained similar territory to the RA around Kharkiv.  They have also taken 30-40km of ground and have now reached the Donets from the west.  It looks like a matter of time until they push the RA across the border in this sector.  My guess is they they drive south to expel the RA from Izyum and drive all of the their forces east of the Donets.  And we should note that the UA is doing this with a pretty small force.

My view is that this battlefield is still pretty fluid.  The RA is not grinding down the UA.  They are taking in places and losing in places.  The UA is likely getting stronger as conscripts get experience and western aid is flowing in.  The RA is likely getting weaker as they struggle to replace lost men and equipment.

My view is that the UA is winning FWIW.

---

This is a deep dive into the deficiencies in the Russian Air Force. I’ve heard some critiques of the article, but I think it is directionally correct.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archiv...ne/629803/

I heard a Ukrainian pilot interviewed, and he basically said that the Russian pilots are flying scared, and that the minute there is any sort of engagement, they fly back to safe territory. Hard to do effective sorties that way.

BC

The Russian pilots are doing the minimum and are coming home alive. Smarter than the average bear. The Ukrainian pilot is probably exactly correct. Given the disparity of numbers, Russia could exchange jets at a 1:1 or maybe even a 1:2 ratio until there were no more Ukrainian jets. The Russian pilots understandably don't care for that tactical approach.

The Atlantic article does have some problems IMHO. As it does point out, Russia has always emphasized tac air. Given that, why is their tac air effort so ineffective? My answer is that Russia has no SEAD/DEAD plan, their pilots know this, and aren't suicidal. In Syria, they didn't need one. In Ukraine, they do.

Here is a theoretical discussion of SEAD/DEAD tactics versus current RA gear including the S400
I have no idea how realistic the assumption are, but they seem to make sense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGwU9HKH_Eo