[Goose]

I think this thread lays thing out nicely.



https://twitter.com/MaxHoffmanDC/status/...cCNMt4JMUg



I suspect Erdogan (and Orban) would have voiced their opposition earlier in this process if they truly were 100% set against it, given how long it has been percolating. I think both can be bought off but they know they can get something for nothing basically and so will press for what they can get.

I think that both can be bought off, Orban for sure. Erdogan made a strong statement that probably resonates with his "base". Backing away from that may be harder than it seems. Hopefully we are handling the diplomacy well here, as pissing him off may create a situation that neither side actually wants but can't see a way out of. Just treating it as an "OK, what is your price?" is probably a bad idea.

[Goose]

I think this thread lays thing out nicely.



https://twitter.com/MaxHoffmanDC/status/...cCNMt4JMUg



I suspect Erdogan (and Orban) would have voiced their opposition earlier in this process if they truly were 100% set against it, given how long it has been percolating. I think both can be bought off but they know they can get something for nothing basically and so will press for what they can get.

I think that both can be bought off, Orban for sure. Erdogan made a strong statement that probably resonates with his "base". Backing away from that may be harder than it seems. Hopefully we are handling the diplomacy well here, as pissing him off may create a situation that neither side actually wants but can't see a way out of. Just treating it as an "OK, what is your price?" is probably a bad idea.