[Goose]

This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

I don't think Putin is the issue. IF Turkey actually votes "NO" it will be from Erdogan's pure cussedness and domestic politics. For him, it is a big issue that Sweden and Finland sanctioned Turkey for going into Syria. Don't under-estimate this. It is a big issue for Erdogan personally and as a result an issue in domestic politics. The fact the PKK operates legally and openly is Sweden is a big issue as well. He expects to get his pound of flesh here, and treating him like "one of the usual extortionists" would undoubtedly piss him off even more. Let's hope that isn't what is happening, as he is serious about this and expect to be taken seriously.

All that said, I do not expect he will be left in a position where he has to vote no. This time however, pressure isn't going to work. It can become like the S-400 where pressure also failed. This sanctions issue is going to require a political solution that Turkey can call a victory.

[Goose]

This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

I don't think Putin is the issue. IF Turkey actually votes "NO" it will be from Erdogan's pure cussedness and domestic politics. For him, it is a big issue that Sweden and Finland sanctioned Turkey for going into Syria. Don't under-estimate this. It is a big issue for Erdogan personally and as a result an issue in domestic politics. The fact the PKK operates legally and openly is Sweden is a big issue as well. He expects to get his pound of flesh here, and treating him like "one of the usual extortionists" would undoubtedly piss him off even more. Let's hope that isn't what is happening, as he is serious about this and expect to be taken seriously.

All that said, I do not expect he will be left in a position where he has to vote no. This time however, pressure isn't going to work. It can become like the S-400 where pressure also failed. This sanctions issue is going to require a political solution that Turkey can call a victory.