[Goose]

This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

There are two separate issues: 1:) Concessions from the West, and 2:) Putin.

The West will make concessions to influence Erdogan’s vote.  That’s a given.

Putin has a small window to derail Finland from joining NATO.  The one realistic option is to do whatever he can to influence Erdogan.  Putin is not in a position to bargain about anything right now but he’s backed up against a wall and unpredictable.  I don’t think NATO will have as easy a time of swaying Erdogan as you portray. 

As I have said before, I don't think Putin is the issue. The issue is Erdogan himself. He is upset with Sweden and Finland not approving his "invasion" of Syria and sanctioning his country. That is a big deal for him, and is probably governing. He is going to require "satisfaction" for this "insult". If he doesn't get it, I fear he will indeed vote no.

---

I bet Erdogan is regretting the S400 move at this moment. Hope they have a lot of missiles stored up ( or their domestic arms industry can reverse engineer and produce them well).

He think he regretted it long before this war started. However, he felt the US had disrespected him by attempting to control what he bought or didn't buy. The US actually has a bit of a history with Turkey in this regard. He simply wasn't going to be dictated to, even if he had decided the S-400 maybe wasn't such a good idea. That is the danger we face now with the new NATO entrants, Erdogan's ego and his domestic political agenda.

[Goose]

This may have been posted previously.  Less than $2Billion of the $40Billion Ukraine bill is for military hardware.  Most of the money is for items other than winning the war on the battlefield.

On NATO expansion I wouldn't underestimate Putin's ability to intimidate Erdoğan one way or another to vote against adding Finland and Sweden.

I would. There is no way in hell Turkey is blocking Finland and Sweden if the U.S., UK, Germany, France want it to happen. Erdogan is just doing what people like him do. He's gonna ask for something in return for Turkey's support. He'll get something and Turkey will approve.

There are two separate issues: 1:) Concessions from the West, and 2:) Putin.

The West will make concessions to influence Erdogan’s vote.  That’s a given.

Putin has a small window to derail Finland from joining NATO.  The one realistic option is to do whatever he can to influence Erdogan.  Putin is not in a position to bargain about anything right now but he’s backed up against a wall and unpredictable.  I don’t think NATO will have as easy a time of swaying Erdogan as you portray. 

As I have said before, I don't think Putin is the issue. The issue is Erdogan himself. He is upset with Sweden and Finland not approving his "invasion" of Syria and sanctioning his country. That is a big deal for him, and is probably governing. He is going to require "satisfaction" for this "insult". If he doesn't get it, I fear he will indeed vote no.

---

I bet Erdogan is regretting the S400 move at this moment. Hope they have a lot of missiles stored up ( or their domestic arms industry can reverse engineer and produce them well).

He think he regretted it long before this war started. However, he felt the US had disrespected him by attempting to control what he bought or didn't buy. The US actually has a bit of a history with Turkey in this regard. He simply wasn't going to be dictated to, even if he had decided the S-400 maybe wasn't such a good idea. That is the danger we face now with the new NATO entrants, Erdogan's ego and his domestic political agenda.