Correct. At the moment, it doesn't look like the lane assignments will give much advantage in the prevailing weather conditions. At some venues, certain lanes will be better shielded from wind/current. That's not really the case for Sarasota, unless a wicked east wind kicks up, at which point the fairness/championship committee will convene and decide whether to reassign lanes.
Ordinarily, I would hesitate to compare times between races because of varying wind conditions, but...this is NCAAs, and the tailwind looked somewhat consistent throughout the morning.
34 DIV I: 8+ Semi-Final 2 08:48 AM
1 Virginia
2 Washington
3 Stanford
4 Princeton
5 Yale
6 Michigan
Commentary: This looks like the toughest, fastest semi-final, with Ivy League winners Princeton (two seconds faster than Stanford in their heat) and Pac-12 runners-up Washington flanking Stanford. Yale went out hard in their heat for the lead but faded back to second after halfway...did they sandbag for extra energy? Washington did something similar, hanging with Texas in their heat until the halfway point and then fading back when they were a length of open water up on third place Penn. A very dangerous semifinal. In the other semifinal, Texas should easily dispatch Brown (by...transitivity via Princeton) and kal (down year). And Texas has already mollywhomped Ohio State earlier this season. Not fair.
My pick: Stanford, Princeton, Washington
38 DIV I: SECOND 8+ Semi-Final 2 09:36 AM
1 Michigan
2 Virginia
3 Yale
4 Stanford
5 Southern Methodist
6 Ohio State
Commentary: Arguably Stanford's weakest boat at the #4 seed (pre-regatta), I would be very wary of #2 Yale, who posted a time two seconds faster than Stanford even when they weren't pushed in their heat. #11 Virginia and #9 SMU both posted slower times from the heats even as they were being pushed hard by their respective heat third-place finishers (both less than a second back). The other semifinal looks more dangerous on paper.
My pick: Stanford, Yale, Virginia (upset over SMU)
42 DIV I: 4+ Semi-Final 2 10:24 AM
1 California
2 Ohio State
3 Stanford
4 Princeton
5 Yale
6 Southern California
Commentary: Stanford has the #2-seeded 4+, but #3-seeded Princeton posted a very similar time in the heats; neither was really pushed. Yale was pushed hard by USC in the heats and went 10 sec slower than Stanford, and Stanford beat both kal and USC by over 8 sec each at the Pac-12 championships. The other semifinal looks easy for Texas.
My pick: Stanford, Princeton, Ohio State (#4)
Remember that it's really just top three to advance to the grand final. The times are somewhat reliable indicators that Stanford will advance all three boats and potentially win each of their semifinals. But I also remember one year when Stanford burned a lot of energy to win some tough semifinals, only to appear gassed in the finals. Maybe you just need to go out hard, assess the field, and not kill yourself trying to win the semi. These multi-day regattas require a little bit of strategy, in my opinion, but other schools of thought say that the athletes need the confidence from going all-out every race. If Stanford has the chance to save energy not chasing Princeton in the 1V (e.g. if Princeton sells their soul to win the semi), I would hold back for the final. Same with Yale in the 2V.
Ordinarily, I would hesitate to compare times between races because of varying wind conditions, but...this is NCAAs, and the tailwind looked somewhat consistent throughout the morning.
34 DIV I: 8+ Semi-Final 2 08:48 AM
1 Virginia
2 Washington
3 Stanford
4 Princeton
5 Yale
6 Michigan
Commentary: This looks like the toughest, fastest semi-final, with Ivy League winners Princeton (two seconds faster than Stanford in their heat) and Pac-12 runners-up Washington flanking Stanford. Yale went out hard in their heat for the lead but faded back to second after halfway...did they sandbag for extra energy? Washington did something similar, hanging with Texas in their heat until the halfway point and then fading back when they were a length of open water up on third place Penn. A very dangerous semifinal. In the other semifinal, Texas should easily dispatch Brown (by...transitivity via Princeton) and kal (down year). And Texas has already mollywhomped Ohio State earlier this season. Not fair.
My pick: Stanford, Princeton, Washington
38 DIV I: SECOND 8+ Semi-Final 2 09:36 AM
1 Michigan
2 Virginia
3 Yale
4 Stanford
5 Southern Methodist
6 Ohio State
Commentary: Arguably Stanford's weakest boat at the #4 seed (pre-regatta), I would be very wary of #2 Yale, who posted a time two seconds faster than Stanford even when they weren't pushed in their heat. #11 Virginia and #9 SMU both posted slower times from the heats even as they were being pushed hard by their respective heat third-place finishers (both less than a second back). The other semifinal looks more dangerous on paper.
My pick: Stanford, Yale, Virginia (upset over SMU)
42 DIV I: 4+ Semi-Final 2 10:24 AM
1 California
2 Ohio State
3 Stanford
4 Princeton
5 Yale
6 Southern California
Commentary: Stanford has the #2-seeded 4+, but #3-seeded Princeton posted a very similar time in the heats; neither was really pushed. Yale was pushed hard by USC in the heats and went 10 sec slower than Stanford, and Stanford beat both kal and USC by over 8 sec each at the Pac-12 championships. The other semifinal looks easy for Texas.
My pick: Stanford, Princeton, Ohio State (#4)
Remember that it's really just top three to advance to the grand final. The times are somewhat reliable indicators that Stanford will advance all three boats and potentially win each of their semifinals. But I also remember one year when Stanford burned a lot of energy to win some tough semifinals, only to appear gassed in the finals. Maybe you just need to go out hard, assess the field, and not kill yourself trying to win the semi. These multi-day regattas require a little bit of strategy, in my opinion, but other schools of thought say that the athletes need the confidence from going all-out every race. If Stanford has the chance to save energy not chasing Princeton in the 1V (e.g. if Princeton sells their soul to win the semi), I would hold back for the final. Same with Yale in the 2V.