[Goose]

With regards to the blockade, I do kind of wonder why we don’t convoy ships with grain out of there under US Navy protection. The risks of a confrontation are not trivial, but It would be a public relations win for the US and Ukraine to bring out grain exports to Egypt and other ambivalent countries, and a public relations nightmare for Russia were it to attack.



BC

There are many problems with doing this. First, to let the US or anyone else bring escort ships into the Black Sea would require Turkey to lift their closure of the entrance to warships not returning to their home ports as specified in the Montreux Convention. There is no provision for exceptions in that document and I am very sure the US lobbied long and hard with Turkey to get them to enforce it. It is at Turkey's option. They MAY close off the Black Sea in the event of war, but they don't have to do so. If they lift it at all, Russia could very legitimately say the convention is all or nothing and is now lifted. They could then bring warships (and war material) in and out as they wish. Turkey probably would either agree because they really want no part of this war anyway or because they fear Russia. It is a minor miracle they are enforcing the convention. We really, really want them to continue doing so.

Second, the Ukrainians have mined their own ports to prevent invasion. Lifting that mine barrier at a minimum creates swept channels Russia can use for landings. Ukraine doesn't have an infinite supply of sea mines or a large number of MCM craft to sweep them. They aren't going to do this without enforceable guarantees that Russia will not use those swept channels. Who can and will provide (and enforce) those guarantees for the rest of this war?

Third, it is pretty easy for Russia to torpedo a grain carrier even if it is escorted. If the Kilo is detected, does the escort attempt to sink it? What insurance company is going to write the policy for the grain carrier? Russia can always claim it hit a floating mine, not a Russian torpedo. In point of fact, such "rogue" mines are another danger to both the grain carries and the escort.

Fourth, the US is never, ever, going to insert warships into the Black Sea without adequate air cover, and probably not even then. Russian Naval air in the Caspian Sea area is functioning quite well right now and those missiles they are shooting at Odesa work much, much better on things that are haze gray. Who and what is supplying the MIGCAP and BARCAP? Russia is simply going to say that if you directly help Ukraine, we can't guarantee you won't be "collateral damage". Do we chance they don't mean it?

[Goose]

With regards to the blockade, I do kind of wonder why we don’t convoy ships with grain out of there under US Navy protection. The risks of a confrontation are not trivial, but It would be a public relations win for the US and Ukraine to bring out grain exports to Egypt and other ambivalent countries, and a public relations nightmare for Russia were it to attack.



BC

There are many problems with doing this. First, to let the US or anyone else bring escort ships into the Black Sea would require Turkey to lift their closure of the entrance to warships not returning to their home ports as specified in the Montreux Convention. There is no provision for exceptions in that document and I am very sure the US lobbied long and hard with Turkey to get them to enforce it. It is at Turkey's option. They MAY close off the Black Sea in the event of war, but they don't have to do so. If they lift it at all, Russia could very legitimately say the convention is all or nothing and is now lifted. They could then bring warships (and war material) in and out as they wish. Turkey probably would either agree because they really want no part of this war anyway or because they fear Russia. It is a minor miracle they are enforcing the convention. We really, really want them to continue doing so.

Second, the Ukrainians have mined their own ports to prevent invasion. Lifting that mine barrier at a minimum creates swept channels Russia can use for landings. Ukraine doesn't have an infinite supply of sea mines or a large number of MCM craft to sweep them. They aren't going to do this without enforceable guarantees that Russia will not use those swept channels. Who can and will provide (and enforce) those guarantees for the rest of this war?

Third, it is pretty easy for Russia to torpedo a grain carrier even if it is escorted. If the Kilo is detected, does the escort attempt to sink it? What insurance company is going to write the policy for the grain carrier? Russia can always claim it hit a floating mine, not a Russian torpedo. In point of fact, such "rogue" mines are another danger to both the grain carries and the escort.

Fourth, the US is never, ever, going to insert warships into the Black Sea without adequate air cover, and probably not even then. Russian Naval air in the Caspian Sea area is functioning quite well right now and those missiles they are shooting at Odesa work much, much better on things that are haze gray. Who and what is supplying the MIGCAP and BARCAP? Russia is simply going to say that if you directly help Ukraine, we can't guarantee you won't be "collateral damage". Do we chance they don't mean it?