[Treefence]

Having Ukraine as a highly motivated and competent proxy is the best possible way for the West to combat Russian aggression. The West made a severe mistake by failing to build up Ukraine’s defenses more than it did during the period from 2014 to Feb 2022. But the West can still recover from that error by committing basically “whatever it takes” in terms of somewhat low tech weaponry that isn’t too likely to be used against Russian territory.

Unfortunately, (IMHO anyway), that won't work because we don't have have the weapons (type or quantity) for Ukraine to fight a "low tech" war against Russia. We can not, and never intended to do that ourselves. For that reason we are aren't prepared to help Ukraine do that, whatever our willingness may or may not be. Ukraine is going to have to fight more "like us" or we can't help them much. At one point, and maybe still, they seemed to desire exactly that. Recently, they have asked for 1000 howitzers and 300 MLRS. It seems in that scenario they want to match the Russians gun for gun. We can't do that. We don't have the weapons. A feasible plan is needed, but it is unclear anybody on our side has/will generate one. Hopefully it exists and will surprise us (and the Russians) when it is unleashed, but I am not holding my breath.

Edit: SAM systems even including Patriot are probably “high tech” but more defensive than offensive, so I’d give those too. I’m less sure about fighter jets.

Odesa could use a Patriot battery. Maybe a few other places. If Ukraine is attacking someplace and needs cover for a division sized advance, maybe there too. However, Patriot is not designed to provide a wide area IAD. We don't do that, and Patriot can't. We use our Air Force for large-scale air defense. Not a good situation unfortunately.

I think another issue with providing them with a patriot missile system battery is that a single battery costs about a billion dollars, and each missile costs 3 million dollars.  Given how much each draw down package has been, and how long this war might last, I worry it's out of the cards.  From what I'm seeing Greece and Bulgaria both have S-300 systems, so maybe the United states could sell Patriot batteries to them, to get them up to NATO standard and have those donated, but that's a brobdingnagian ask, and both those countries have a lot of politics to deal with when it comes to supporting Ukraine.

[Treefence]

Having Ukraine as a highly motivated and competent proxy is the best possible way for the West to combat Russian aggression. The West made a severe mistake by failing to build up Ukraine’s defenses more than it did during the period from 2014 to Feb 2022. But the West can still recover from that error by committing basically “whatever it takes” in terms of somewhat low tech weaponry that isn’t too likely to be used against Russian territory.

Unfortunately, (IMHO anyway), that won't work because we don't have have the weapons (type or quantity) for Ukraine to fight a "low tech" war against Russia. We can not, and never intended to do that ourselves. For that reason we are aren't prepared to help Ukraine do that, whatever our willingness may or may not be. Ukraine is going to have to fight more "like us" or we can't help them much. At one point, and maybe still, they seemed to desire exactly that. Recently, they have asked for 1000 howitzers and 300 MLRS. It seems in that scenario they want to match the Russians gun for gun. We can't do that. We don't have the weapons. A feasible plan is needed, but it is unclear anybody on our side has/will generate one. Hopefully it exists and will surprise us (and the Russians) when it is unleashed, but I am not holding my breath.

Edit: SAM systems even including Patriot are probably “high tech” but more defensive than offensive, so I’d give those too. I’m less sure about fighter jets.

Odesa could use a Patriot battery. Maybe a few other places. If Ukraine is attacking someplace and needs cover for a division sized advance, maybe there too. However, Patriot is not designed to provide a wide area IAD. We don't do that, and Patriot can't. We use our Air Force for large-scale air defense. Not a good situation unfortunately.

I think another issue with providing them with a patriot missile system battery is that a single battery costs about a billion dollars, and each missile costs 3 million dollars.  Given how much each draw down package has been, and how long this war might last, I worry it's out of the cards.  From what I'm seeing Greece and Bulgaria both have S-300 systems, so maybe the United states could sell Patriot batteries to them, to get them up to NATO standard and have those donated, but that's a brobdingnagian ask, and both those countries have a lot of politics to deal with when it comes to supporting Ukraine.